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Precognition (from the Latin præ-, “prior to,” + cognitio, “a getting to know”) refers to perception that ostensibly involves the acquisition of future information that cannot be deduced from presently available and normally acquired, sense-based information. A related term, presentiment, refers to information about future events that is perceived as emotions. The terms are usually used to denote a seemingly parapsychological, or extrasensory, process of perception, including clairvoyance. Various psychological processes, making no reference to psi, have also been offered to explain the phenomena. Both naturalistic and experimental academic research has been conducted on precognition.

Incidence/prevalence

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There are several ways in which the incidence and prevalence of belief or experience of precognition – as an ostensibly anomalous source of information about future experiences – can be measured.

One source of information concerns cases of "psychic experiences" that are volunteered to parapsychologists by the general population. In one review of a U.S. case collection, submitted to Duke University's Parapsychology Laboratory, 75% of 1777 dream-based experiences were of the precognitive type, while, of 1513 wakeful experiences, 60% were of the precognitive type. A similar pattern was identified for a separate collection of 157 cases experienced by children; here, the largest category of experiences was again of precognitive dreams (52%), followed by precognitive intuitions (52%). A German case collection produced a similar figure: 52% of 1,000 cases were of the precognitive type. Alternatively, a British study of 300 volunteered cases showed 34% to be of the precognitive type.

Another source of information involves questionnaires administered to selected samples. Among studies of this kind have been those that have sought to validate the Australian Sheep-Goat Scale of paranormal belief. Three items on this 18-item scale specifically refer to precognition, and in a validation study involving 234 Australian psychology students, experience of precognition was affirmed by 35% of participants, as occurring in the form of dreams, and 38%, as occurring in the form of (wakeful) premonition. Additionally, 27% of these participants affirmed belief in precognition as a possibility.

It appears that, on the basis of these and like studies, precognition is considered to be a likely possibility, and even to have been experienced, by at least one third of what can be defined as a general population. For the most part, it appears that these experiences pertain to recalled dreams, and that recalled dreams, indeed, in so far as they suggest some kind of extrasensory perception, are mostly of the precognitive type (i.e., rather than of past or contemporary experiences).

Evidence

Case collections

History records many instances of apparent precognition, and belief in its occurrence as a form of seeing into the future. The first thorough collection and critical review of such spontaneous cases was made by the British Society for Psychical Research (SPR). This involved checking the veracity of people's reports by interviewing witnesses, and obtaining objective evidence of the occurrence of the precognition prior to the event's occurrence. Substantial reports of these cases were authored by Eleanor Sidgwick in 1888, and H. F. Saltmarsh in 1938. Sidgwick believed the evidence to warrant further investigation as to the validity of the concept of precognition, and Saltmarsh offered that the evidence, if it did not scientifically establish the phenomenon, at least excluded alternative hypotheses. Nicol, however, in a later review, came to the conclusion that their evidence was not so suggestive, given, in particular, the long length of time between the occurrence of some of the most suggestive cases, and their first report to the SPR.

J. W. Dunne, a British aeronautics engineer, undertook to study precognitive dreaming more objectively, by rigorously recording each of his dreams as they occurred to him, and studiously identifying any correspondences between his future experiences and his recorded dreams. In 1927, he reported his findings, together with an explanatory theory, in the classic An Experiment with Time. In this work, at least 10% of his dreams appeared to represent some future event, pertaining to some relatively trivial incident in Dunne's own life, or some major news events appearing in the press a day or so after the dream. Dunne concluded that precognitive dreams are common occurrences: many people have them without realizing it, largely because they do not recall the details of the dream. Also reported in the book was an experiment Dunne conducted with several participants other than himself, each studiously recording their dreams and seeking to associate them with subsequent experiences. While these confirmed Dunne's personal observations, a later independently conducted experiment failed to replicate his findings.

Experimental approaches

Free-response studies

These studies of spontaneous cases suggested, at least, that the reliability of recollection, and subjective interpretations of correspondences between the precognition and the future event, naturally limited the evidence for precognition. Accordingly, more controlled laboratory approaches became desirable in the interest of establishing and understanding precognition. Some experimental approaches have been developed in which the natural psychological forms of precognition – in dreams or waking visions – have remained the object of study. In these experiments, participants are, at least initially, free to respond in any manner that spontaneously occurs to them – e.g., by a dream, a vision, or an hallucination. Only later must they, and/or independent judges, decide how well their reported experience agrees with a subsequently and randomly chosen target stimulus, from among a set of alternative "decoy" targets.

With such free-response methods, experiments have been conducted in precognitive dreaming at the sleep laboratory of the Maimonides Medical Center, in precognitive Ganzfeld hallucinations and visions, and in precognitive remote viewing. While such experiments have produced some suggestive evidence for precognition, they have been somewhat limited to studies of selected participants, and have involved procedures that can be too expensive for other researchers to replicate, or too complex to theoretically interpret.

Forced-choice studies

Accordingly, for the most part, experiments on precognition have involved a forced-choice procedure, in which the likes of dreams and visions play no necessary part. The first such ongoing and organized research program on precognition was instituted by J. B. Rhine in the 1930s at Duke University's Parapsychology Laboratory. Rhine used a method of forced-choice matching in which participants recorded their guesses as to the order of a deck of 25 cards, each five of which bore one of five geometrical symbols. The test of precognition was based on the fact that these "guesses" were made before the deck was shuffled by the experimenter. In an effort to distinguish between different parapsychological accounts of precognition, and to better understand its conditions, experiments were conducted in which the order of the target deck of cards was determined by hand versus machine, or by reference to macroscopic events, such as randomly selected meteorological readings, or by complex algorithms. Early experiments also sought to determine the temporal scope of precognition by organizing the target deck only 1-2 versus 10 days, or even a year, after responses had been recorded and secured.

A meta-analysis of all reports in the parapsychological literature of such card-calling experiments on precognition was conducted in the late 1980s. This encompassed 309 experiments reported by 40 different investigators and published between 1935 and 1987. The overall result offered precognition as a reliable but small effect over these studies, and an effect that could not be accounted for by levels of methodological reliability (as assessed by rating the studies on eight attributes of method), nor any publication bias against reporting null results.

Other researchers, including Smithsonian Executive Secretary Charles Greeley Abbot and British psychologist R. H. Thouless, introduced the study of precognition in the displacement of guesses to targets. This involved a set of target symbols, and "guesses" as to their identity, but, rather than precognizing the order of a whole deck of symbols, scored for precognition by checking the correspondence between each response and the target assigned to one or more trials ahead of that to which the response was originally assigned. Several studies using this method have continually offered displacement as reliable evidence for precognition, while an early study of this kind, by S. G. Soal, has been continually critiqued as fraudulently conducted.

Following these experiments, a more automated technique of experimentation was introduced that did not rely on hand-scoring of equivalence between targets and guesses, and in which the targets could be more reliably and readily tested as random. This involved testing for precognition with the use of high-speed random event generators (REG), as introduced by Helmut Schmidt in 1969 and further conducted, in particular, at the Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research Lab (1979-2007). In this procedure, participants indicate when they believe (by whatever means available to them) that the REG has produced an event that either conforms or differs from one of two target events. In comparison to the card-guessing type of experiments, this procedure permits much more data to be collected in an experimental session, while reducing the number of alternatives that need to guessed.

Unconscious perception studies

In all the above-defined experimental procedures, participants have been required to volunteer the likes of a guess, a dream, or some other psychological experience. However, the original spontaneous cases offered precognition as an experience that did not rely on people producing any kind of deliberated psychological experience, or one that was meant to discretely relate to a future event. Some procedures of experimentation have been developed as better tests for precognition by such indirect signs. These have involved physiological responses, such as of skin conductance and electroencephalographic activity, or indirect psychological measures, such as ratings of preference for one or another target alternative. In these experiments, participants do not even need to be informed that they are participating in an experiment on ESP, let alone precognition. While the findings are arguably too recent to warrant firm conclusion, some experiments of these kinds have yielded data that are suggestive of precognition in a way that requires a parapsychological explanation. These include findings that have been replicated across different laboratories, and collected by different experimenters.

Explanations

Philosophical

A number of philosophical issues have been raised as problematic for various explanations of precognition.

• Intervention paradox: In relation to the issue of causality, it can be asked how precognition accounts for actions of those who know of a future event by precognition. If the action causes the event not to occur, this could prevent the viewer from seeing the event in the first place.

• Circular cause and consequence: A subtler form of paradox concerns the problem of events that are actually caused by the foreseeing of the event. Though in and of itself this chain is logically consistent, it is a chicken or egg problem – if the event did not happen the viewer would not have seen it, which would have prevented it from happening.

Psychological

Various more or less well understood psychological processes have been raised to explain precognition.

Cognitive failure/distortion models

Suited to explaining at least naturalistic occurrences of apparent precognition are several more or less hypothetical unconscious cognitive processes. These were first raised, in summary, by the philosopher C. D. Broad , and include:

• Selection bias where people remember the "hits" and forget the "misses," remember coincidences more often than other non-coincidences, or when they were correct about a future event rather than instances when they were wrong. Examples include thinking of a specific person before that person calls on the phone. Human memory, it is argued, has a tendency to record instances when the guess was correct, and to dismiss instances when the guess was incorrect.

• Cryptomnesia in which people retain knowledge of a certain fact that will occur in the future, but lose conscious knowledge of how they learned it. When the event comes to pass, it appears to them that they knew of the event without the aid of recognized channels of information.

• Unconscious perception by which people unconsciously infer, from data they have unconsciously learned, that a certain event will probably happen in a certain context. As with cryptomnesia, when the event occurs, the former knowledge appears to have been acquired without the aid of recognized channels of information.

• Self-fulfilling prophecy and Unconscious enactment in which people bring events that they have precognized to pass, but without their conscious knowledge.

Sampling theories

A further psychological theory, first proposed by the geneticist Lila Gatlin, proposes an extraordinary capacity of prediction based on past information – without any reference to parapsychological or paraphysical concepts. According to Gatlin, by way of example, in an experimental situation of the card-guessing type for extrasensory perception, any knowledge that the participant acquires of the sequence and proportions of alternative targets in earlier runs can be used to predict a future sequence of the targets. This is because any finite sequence of data contains some element of non-randomness, and if this non-randomness is characteristic of the process that generates the target data throughout the experiment, then it can be used as information to predict any future series of target data. The theory accepts that this information can be very subtle, perhaps only involving a bias, say, in equal representation of all possible groups of seven cards. Yet it proposes that people are sensitive to any past deviation from randomness – great or small – in the process of producing future behavior, and that people unconsciously utilize this information in order to unconsciously perform a statistical prediction of the next event. This process, Gatlin offered, would be especially well informed in experiments that offer continual feedback about the correctness of guesses, but it can also occur if participants are only privileged with a quick display, at the end of the run, of the target cards. In brief, this theory proposes a previously unrecognized capacity for somewhat genial unconscious statistical prediction, in preference to any parapsychological or paraphysical notion.

When Gatlin first proposed this theory in the parapsychological literature, it was strongly refuted as less plausible than the construct of extra-sensory perception. However, much of its propositions have recently re-appeared in the form of the Decision Augmentation Theory (DAT). This theory was principally proposed as an explanation of data from studies of psychokinesis of random event generators. Here, rather than any "force" working on the devices, or any future observation affecting their outcome (see Observational theories, below), the correspondence of output with intention is dependent on an optimal sampling of the data-generation process – one that permits the future data to conform with intention. In naturalistic situations, this amounts to positioning oneself, "at the right place, at the right time", in order to maximize the fulfillment of one's expectations. Precognition, indeed, is offered by DAT as an explanation of all forms of psi, including telepathy and clairvoyance. In this way, for instance, the fact that spatial distance between the target cards and percipients was observed, in many ESP experiments, to make no difference to ESP scores, could be explained by posing sampling of the target-generation process as the site for psi – no notion of transmission of a signal from an agent to a percipient being required. DAT permits, however, unlike Gatlin's theory, that some anomalous source of knowledge, not dependent on prior information, can inform the decision as to when to appropriately sample the data. This respects the fact that the experiments it seeks to explain involve sources of "quantum randomness", which are generally considered to be unpredictable. DAT thus presents a theory that hypothetically encompasses both psychological and parapsychological concepts.

Psiological

There are several ways by which precognition can be conceived as occurring without fundamental dependence on normally recognized processes of perception and cognition, i.e., by psi, whether that be by parapsychological or paraphysical processes. "Seeing into the future" is only one way to think about what could be occurring.

Firstly, there are several ways to explain precognition as a form of extrasensory perception. Precognition can be conceived as an extraordinary process of clairvoyance, involving no direct perception of the future. If, as is offered by the philosophy of determinism, all future events are determined by present conditions, then it can be suggested that it is clairvoyance of all the relevant present conditions that permits one to know their future outcomes. Alternatively, if somebody in the present is aware of what will happen in the future, then it can be suggested that it is telepathy of that information that grants oneself a like knowledge of the future. "Seeing into the future" can also be conceived as not a direct perception of a future event, but only a perception of one's own future experience of that event; what J. B. Rhine called precognitive sensory perception. This, Rhine offered, could be extended to precognition of one's future inferences, dreams, or any other kind of psychological experience – and not of any objective event itself.

The construct of psychokinesis permits another set of ways to think about precognition. It can be suggested that precognition involves the influence of present conditions so that they conform with what is precognized. Alternatively, a retrocausal process can be proferred as an explanation, raising the idea that, at a future time, the ostensibly present conditions are influenced backward in time.

Each of these alternative parapsychological ways of explaining precognition have their own logical and psychological issues; and make different demands on a more fundamental parapsychological theory of precognition. There are two main classes of such theories:

Advanced Wave theory

It was principally offered by the physicist Gerald Feinberg that, given time-symmetrical solutions to the equations of classical physics, precognition can be conceived as a "memory of things future". Following Feinberg, this would occur in the manner of Rhine's precognitive sensory perception, with the neuronal activity involved in the future perception sending an advanced wave of its occurrence, backward in time, to present neuronal processes. Feinberg acknowledged that such a process could only occur in the short term, with respect to the limited evidence for advanced waves, but he suggested that a cascade of advanced waves, from later future experiences to those more recent, could account for more long-term precognitions.

Observational theories

One class of parapsychological theories makes reference to the measurement problem in quantum mechanics, particularly as it implicates the constructive role of human observation. Precognition, in the context of these theories, is generally conceived in the manner of retroactive psychokinesis, but without recourse to any notion of the transmission of psychophysical energy. According to some observational theories, it is at the point of observation of a future event that the event is, in fact, determined, and, under certain conditions of motivation, randomness and feedback, this future observation can inform the present observer.

Miscellany/trivia

• London psychiatrist J. A. Barker established the British Premonitions Bureau in 1967, which collected precognitive data in order to provide an early warning system of impending disasters.

In fiction

• In the Star Wars franchise, both the Jedi and Sith are granted precognitive abilities through mastery of the Force. This allows them to predict probable future events and to react to events that have not yet happened; this creates the illusion of them possessing super human reflexes in combat.
• In the TV series Heroes, some characters have the ability to see, dream, and/or paint pictures from the future. For Example: Angela Petrelli, Isaac Mendez, and Matt Parkman.
• In the TV series Supernatural, the character Sam Winchester has the supernatural power to have visions from the future, though he displays no control over this skill.
• Horror author Stephen King uses precognition in some of his novels, most notably The Shining and The Dead Zone, where a man can see the immediate future or past by touching an object relating to the subject of his prediction.
• Precognition, and the implications of wielding a power like it, plays a significant role in Frank Herbert's Dune series, in which precognition is essential to faster than light space travel.
• Alyssa Milano's character Phoebe Halliwell in the television series Charmed possesses the power of precognition.
• Many Marvel/DC characters possess the power of precognition, including Destiny of the X-Men comics and Lilith from Teen Titans series. Dream Girl of the Legion of Super-Heroes comes from a world where the entire population can see the future. Spider-Man's "spider-sense" is also a limited precognitive sense. In the film Elektra, based on the comic book character Elektra Natchios, the protagonist displays the ability of "Kimagure", a seemingly supernatural ability that grants the practitioner the power, among others, to see the future. Another Marvel ninja, Psylocke, is a mutant who possesses limited precognitive abilities, though she has no control over them.
• Precognitives ("precogs") play a prominent role in several science fiction novels by Philip K. Dick. For example, Barney Mayerson, one of the main characters of The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch is a precog. The movies Minority Report and Next, both derived from short stories written by Dick, contain major references to precognitives.
• In her "Bishop/Special Crimes Unit" novels, Kay Hooper writes of an FBI team of psychics, some specializing in precognition.
• In the novel series Twilight by Stephenie Meyer, one of the main characters, Alice Cullen, has the ability to see decision-based futures.
• In the Code Geass spin-off manga series Nightmare of Nunnally, Nunnally Lamperouge obtains the power to read the lines of the future, functionally identical to precognition.
• In the novel by Isabel Allende, The House of the Spirits, one of the characters has the ability to perceive someones' death.
• In the TV series Stargate SG-1, Jonas Quinn acquires the ability to see possible futures in the episode "Prophecy".
• In the TV series Stargate Atlantis, the Atlantis expedition encounters a man named Davos who has visions of the future in the episode "The Seer".
• In the TV series Andromeda, Trance Gemini can see multiple futures and decide the course of action taken to achieve the best possible one.
• In the anime series Yu-gi-oh!, Ishizu Ishtar has the power to see both into the past and the future using the Millennium Necklace.
• In the last two episodes of series 4 of the revived TV series, Doctor Who, Dalek Caan travelled through time and rescued the Dalek's creator, Davros, going mad and gaining precognitive abilities
• In the e-RPG, Empire City, the teenage meta Faith possesses seer-like visions of the past, present and future.
• In the Talent, Tower and Hive series by Author Anne McCaffrey there are people called talents some possess the talent of precognition.
• In pokemon, aura users have a limited usage of this.
• In some sections of Richard Brightfield's 1983 Choose Your Own Adventure gamebook The Phantom Submarine, the protagonist is described as gifted with the "ability to know what will happen".
• In the movie Next starring Nicolas Cage, precognition powers are used and Cage's character is able to see seconds in the future before anybody else.

See also

• Anomalous cognition
• Déjà vu
• Fortune-telling
• Parapsychology
• Precognitive dreams
• Premonition
• Retrocausality
• Retrocognition
• Second sight

References

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External links

• Precognition, Presentiment & Remote Viewing - Dean Radin
• The Best Case for ESP?
• Failed Psychic Predictions for 1998
• Online Psi Experiments Links to precognition experiments (Parapsych.org affiliate of the AAAS)

• Paranormal
• Parapsychology
• Prediction
• Psychic powers
• Spiritual faculties