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The effects of global warming and climate change are of concern both for the environment and human life. Evidence of observed climate change includes the instrumental temperature record, rising sea levels, and decreased snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere. According to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, " of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in concentrations". It is predicted that future climate changes will include further global warming (i.e., an upward trend in global mean temperature), sea level rise, and a probable increase in the frequency of some extreme weather events. Ecosystems are seen as being particularly vulnerable to climate change. Human systems are seen as being variable in their capacity to adapt to future climate change. To reduce the risk of large changes in future climate, many countries have implemented policies designed to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases.

Overview

Over the last hundred years or so, the instrumental temperature record has shown a trend in climate of increased global mean temperature, i.e., global warming. Other observed changes include Arctic shrinkage, Arctic methane release, releases of terrestrial carbon from permafrost regions and Arctic methane release in coastal sediments, and sea level rise. Global average temperature is predicted to increase over this century, with a probable increase in frequency of some extreme weather events, and changes in rainfall patterns. Moving from global to regional scales, there is increased uncertainty over how climate will change. The probability of warming having unforeseen consequences increases with the rate, magnitude, and duration of climate change. Some of the physical impacts of climate change are irreversible at continental and global scales. Sea level is expected to rise 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23.2 inches) by the end of the 21st century. Due to a lack of scientific understanding, this sea level rise estimate does not include all of the possible contributions of ice sheets. Slowing of the Meridional Overturning Circulation is very likely to occur this century, but temperatures in the Atlantic and Europe will probably still be higher due to global warming. For a global warming of 1-4°C (relative to 1990-2000), there is a moderate chance that partial deglaciation of the Greenland ice sheet would occur over a period of centuries to millennia. Including the possible contribution of partial deglaciation of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, sea level would rise by 4–6 m or more.

The impacts on human systems of climate change will probably be distributed unevenly. Some regions and sectors are expected to experience benefits while others will experience costs. With greater levels of warming (greater than 2-3°C, relative to 1990 levels), it is likely that benefits will decline and costs increase. Low-latitude and less-developed areas are probably at the greatest risk from climate change. With human systems, adaptation potential for climate change impacts is considerable, although the costs of adaptation are largely unknown and potentially large. Climate change will likely result in reduced diversity of ecosystems and the extinction of many species. Adaptation potential for biological and geophysical systems is estimated to be lower than that for human systems.

Physical impacts

Effects on weather

Increasing temperature is likely to lead to increasing precipitation but the effects on storms are less clear. Extratropical storms partly depend on the temperature gradient, which is predicted to weaken in the northern hemisphere as the polar region warms more than the rest of the hemisphere.

Extreme weather

Based on future projections of climate change, the IPCC report makes a number of predictions. It is predicted that over most land areas, the frequency of warm spells/heat waves will very likely increase. It is likely that:

• Increased areas will be affected by drought
• There will be increased intense tropical cyclone activity
• There will be increased incidences of extreme high sea level (excluding tsunamis)

Storm strength leading to extreme weather is increasing, such as the power dissipation index of hurricane intensity. Kerry Emanuel writes that hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with temperature, reflecting global warming. However, a further study by Emanuel using current model output concluded that the increase in power dissipation in recent decades cannot be completely attributed to global warming. Hurricane modeling has produced similar results, finding that hurricanes, simulated under warmer, high-CO₂ conditions, are more intense, however, hurricane frequency will be reduced. Worldwide, the proportion of hurricanes reaching categories 4 or 5 – with wind speeds above 56 metres per second – has risen from 20% in the 1970s to 35% in the 1990s. Precipitation hitting the US from hurricanes has increased by 7% over the twentieth century. The extent to which this is due to global warming as opposed to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is unclear. Some studies have found that the increase in sea surface temperature may be offset by an increase in wind shear, leading to little or no change in hurricane activity. Hoyos et al. (2006) have linked the increasing trend in number of category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the period 1970-2004 directly to the trend in sea surface temperatures.

Increases in catastrophes resulting from extreme weather are mainly caused by increasing population densities, and anticipated future increases are similarly dominated by societal change rather than climate change. The World Meteorological Organization explains that “though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point.” They also clarified that “no individual tropical cyclone can be directly attributed to climate change.”

Thomas Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya of NOAA stated in 2004 that warming induced by greenhouse gas may lead to increasing occurrence of highly destructive category-5 storms. In 2008, Knutson et al. found that Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm frequencies could reduce under future greenhouse-gas-induced warming. Vecchi and Soden find that wind shear, the increase of which acts to inhibit tropical cyclones, also changes in model-projections of global warming. There are projected increases of wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and East Pacific associated with the deceleration of the Walker circulation, as well as decreases of wind shear in the western and central Pacific. The study does not make claims about the net effect on Atlantic and East Pacific hurricanes of the warming and moistening atmospheres, and the model-projected increases in Atlantic wind shear.

A substantially higher risk of extreme weather does not necessarily mean a noticeably greater risk of slightly-above-average weather. However, the evidence is clear that severe weather and moderate rainfall are also increasing. Increases in temperature are expected to produce more intense convection over land and a higher frequency of the most severe storms.

Increased evaporation

Over the course of the 20th century, evaporation rates have reduced worldwide ; this is thought by many to be explained by global dimming. As the climate grows warmer and the causes of global dimming are reduced, evaporation will increase due to warmer oceans. Because the world is a closed system this will cause heavier rainfall, with more erosion. This erosion, in turn, can in vulnerable tropical areas (especially in Africa) lead to desertification. On the other hand, in other areas, increased rainfall lead to growth of forests in dry desert areas.

Scientists have found evidence that increased evaporation could result in more extreme weather as global warming progresses. The IPCC Third Annual Report says: "...global average water vapor concentration and precipitation are projected to increase during the 21st century. By the second half of the 21st century, it is likely that precipitation will have increased over northern mid- to high latitudes and Antarctica in winter. At low latitudes there are both regional increases and decreases over land areas. Larger year to year variations in precipitation are very likely over most areas where an increase in mean precipitation is projected."

Cost of more extreme weather

As the World Meteorological Organization explains, “recent increase in societal impact from tropical cyclones has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions.” Pielke et al. (2008) normalized mainland U.S. hurricane damage from 1900–2005 to 2005 values and found no remaining trend of increasing absolute damage. The 1970s and 1980s were notable because of the extremely low amounts of damage compared to other decades. The decade 1996–2005 has the second most damage among the past 11 decades, with only the decade 1926–1935 surpassing its costs. The most damaging single storm is the 1926 Miami hurricane, with $157 billion of normalized damage.

The American Insurance Journal predicted that “catastrophe losses should be expected to double roughly every 10 years because of increases in construction costs, increases in the number of structures and changes in their characteristics.” The Association of British Insurers has stated that limiting carbon emissions would avoid 80% of the projected additional annual cost of tropical cyclones by the 2080s. The cost is also increasing partly because of building in exposed areas such as coasts and floodplains. The ABI claims that reduction of the vulnerability to some inevitable effects of climate change, for example through more resilient buildings and improved flood defences, could also result in considerable cost-savings in the longterm.

Local climate change

In the northern hemisphere, the southern part of the Arctic region (home to 4,000,000 people) has experienced a temperature rise of 1 °C to 3 °C (1.8 °F to 5.4 °F) over the last 50 years. Canada, Alaska and Russia are experiencing initial melting of permafrost. This may disrupt ecosystems and by increasing bacterial activity in the soil lead to these areas becoming carbon sources instead of carbon sinks. A study (published in Science) of changes to eastern Siberia's permafrost suggests that it is gradually disappearing in the southern regions, leading to the loss of nearly 11% of Siberia's nearly 11,000 lakes since 1971. At the same time, western Siberia is at the initial stage where melting permafrost is creating new lakes, which will eventually start disappearing as in the east. Furthermore, permafrost melting will eventually cause methane release from melting permafrost peat bogs.

Prior to March 2004, no tropical cyclone had been observed in the South Atlantic Ocean. The first Atlantic cyclone to form south of the equator hit Brazil on March 28, 2004 with 40 m/s (144 km/h) winds, although some Brazilian meteorologists deny that it was a hurricane. Monitoring systems may have to be extended 1,600 km (1,000 miles) further south. There is no agreement as to whether this hurricane is linked to climate change, but one climate model exhibits increased tropical cyclone genesis in the South Atlantic under global warming by the end of the 21st century.

Glacier retreat and disappearance

In historic times, glaciers grew during a cool period from about 1550 to 1850 known as the Little Ice Age. Subsequently, until about 1940, glaciers around the world retreated as the climate warmed. Glacier retreat declined and reversed in many cases from 1950 to 1980 as a slight global cooling occurred. Since 1980, glacier retreat has become increasingly rapid and ubiquitous, and has threatened the existence of many of the glaciers of the world. This process has increased markedly since 1995.

Excluding the ice caps and ice sheets of the Arctic and Antarctic, the total surface area of glaciers worldwide has decreased by 50% since the end of the 19th century. Currently glacier retreat rates and mass balance losses have been increasing in the Andes, Alps, Pyrenees, Himalayas, Rocky Mountains and North Cascades.

The loss of glaciers not only directly causes landslides, flash floods and glacial lake overflow, but also increases annual variation in water flows in rivers. Glacier runoff declines in the summer as glaciers decrease in size, this decline is already observable in several regions. Glaciers retain water on mountains in high precipitation years, since the snow cover accumulating on glaciers protects the ice from melting. In warmer and drier years, glaciers offset the lower precipitation amounts with a higher meltwater input.

Of particular importance are the Hindu Kush and Himalayan glacial melts that comprise the principal dry-season water source of many of the major rivers of the Central, South, East and Southeast Asian mainland. Increased melting would cause greater flow for several decades, after which "some areas of the most populated regions on Earth are likely to 'run out of water'" as source glaciers are depleted. The Tibetan Plateau contains the world's third-largest store of ice. Temperatures there are rising four times faster than in the rest of China, and glacial retreat is at a high speed compared to elsewhere in the world.

According to a UN climate report, the Himalayan glaciers that are the sources of Asia's biggest rivers—Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Mekong, Salween and Yellow—could disappear within a few hundred years as temperatures rise. Approximately 2.4 billion people live in the drainage basin of the Himalayan rivers. India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Myanmar could experience floods followed by droughts in coming decades. In India alone, the Ganges provides water for drinking and farming for more than 500 million people. It has to be acknowledged, however, that increased seasonal runoff of Himalayan glaciers led to increased agricultural production in northern India throughout the 20th century.

The recession of mountain glaciers, notably in Western North America, Franz-Josef Land, Asia, the Alps, the Pyrenees, Indonesia and Africa, and tropical and sub-tropical regions of South America, has been used to provide qualitative support to the rise in global temperatures since the late 19th century. Many glaciers are being lost to melting further raising concerns about future local water resources in these glaciated areas. In Western North America the 47 North Cascade glaciers observed all are retreating.

Despite their proximity and importance to human populations, the mountain and valley glaciers of temperate latitudes amount to a small fraction of glacial ice on the earth. About 99% is in the great ice sheets of polar and subpolar Antarctica and Greenland. These continuous continental-scale ice sheets, 3 kilometres (1.9 miles) or more in thickness, cap the polar and subpolar land masses. Like rivers flowing from an enormous lake, numerous outlet glaciers transport ice from the margins of the ice sheet to the ocean.

Glacier retreat has been observed in these outlet glaciers, resulting in an increase of the ice flow rate. In Greenland the period since the year 2000 has brought retreat to several very large glaciers that had long been stable. Three glaciers that have been researched, Helheim, Jakobshavn Isbræ and Kangerdlugssuaq Glaciers, jointly drain more than 16% of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Satellite images and aerial photographs from the 1950s and 1970s show that the front of the glacier had remained in the same place for decades. But in 2001 it began retreating rapidly, retreating 7.2 km (4.5 mi) between 2001 and 2005. It has also accelerated from 20 m (66 ft)/day to 32 m (105 ft)/day. Jakobshavn Isbræ in western Greenland had been moving at speeds of over 24 m (79 ft)/day with a stable terminus since at least 1950. The glacier's ice tongue began to break apart in 2000, leading to almost complete disintegration in 2003, while the retreat rate doubled to over 30 m (98 ft)/day.

Oceans

The role of the oceans in global warming is a complex one. The oceans serve as a sink for carbon dioxide, taking up much that would otherwise remain in the atmosphere, but increased levels of CO₂ have led to ocean acidification. Furthermore, as the temperature of the oceans increases, they become less able to absorb excess CO₂. Global warming is projected to have a number of effects on the oceans. Ongoing effects include rising sea levels due to thermal expansion and melting of glaciers and ice sheets, and warming of the ocean surface, leading to increased temperature stratification. Other possible effects include large-scale changes in ocean circulation.

Sea level rise

With increasing average global temperature, the water in the oceans expands in volume, and additional water enters them which had previously been locked up on land in glaciers, for example, the Greenland and the Antarctic ice sheets. For most glaciers worldwide, an average volume loss of 60% until 2050 is predicted. Meanwhile, the estimated total ice melting rate over Greenland is 239 ± 23 cubic kilometres (57.3 ± 5.5 cu mi) per year, mostly from East Greenland. The Antarctic ice sheet, however, is expected to grow during the 21st century because of increased precipitation. Under the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) A1B, by the mid-2090s global sea level will reach 0.22 to 0.44 m (8.7 to 17.3 in) above 1990 levels, and is currently rising at about 4 mm (0.16 in) per year. Since 1900, the sea level has risen at an average of 1.7 mm (0.067 in) per year; since 1993, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon indicates a rate of about 3 mm (0.12 in) per year.

The sea level has risen more than 120 metres (390 ft) since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20,000 years ago. The bulk of that occurred before 7000 years ago. Global temperature declined after the Holocene Climatic Optimum, causing a sea level lowering of 0.7 ± 0.1 m (27.6 ± 3.9 in) between 4000 and 2500 years before present. From 3000 years ago to the start of the 19th century, sea level was almost constant, with only minor fluctuations. However, the Medieval Warm Period may have caused some sea level rise; evidence has been found in the Pacific Ocean for a rise to perhaps 0.9 m (2 ft 11 in) above present level in 700 BP.

In a paper published in 2007, the climatologist James Hansen et al. claimed that ice at the poles does not melt in a gradual and linear fashion, but that another according to the geological record, the ice sheets can suddenly destabilize when a certain threshold is exceeded. In this paper Hansen et al. state:

Our concern that BAU GHG scenarios would cause large sealevel rise this century (Hansen 2005) differs from estimates of IPCC (2001, 2007), which foresees little or no contribution to twentyfirst century sealevel rise from Greenland and Antarctica. However, the IPCC analyses and projections do not well account for the nonlinear physics of wet ice sheet disintegration, ice streams and eroding ice shelves, nor are they consistent with the palaeoclimate evidence we have presented for the absence of discernible lag between ice sheet forcing and sealevel rise.

Sea level rise due to the collapse of an ice sheet would be distributed nonuniformly across the globe. The loss of mass in the region around the ice sheet would decrease the gravitational potential there, reducing the amount of local sea level rise or even causing local sea level fall. The loss of the localized mass would also change the moment of inertia of the Earth, as flow in the Earth's mantle will require 10-15 thousand years to make up the mass deficit. This change in the moment of inertia results in true polar wander, in which the Earth's rotational axis remains fixed with respect to the sun, but the rigid sphere of the Earth rotates with respect to it. This changes the location of the equatorial bulge of the Earth and further affects the geoid, or global potential field. A 2009 study of the effects of collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet shows the result of both of these effects. Instead of a global 5-meter sea level rise, western Antarctica would experience approximately 25 centimeters of sea level fall, while the United States, parts of Canada, and the Indian Ocean, would experience up to 6.5 meters of sea level rise.

A paper published in 2008 by a group of researchers at the University of Wisconsin lead by Anders Carlson used the deglaciation of North America at 9000 years before present as an analogue to predict sea level rise of 1.3 meters in the next century, which is also much higher than the IPCC predictions. However, models of glacial flow in the smaller present-day ice sheets show that a probable maximum value for sea level rise in the next century is 80 centimeters, based on limitations on how quickly ice can flow below the equilibrium line altitude and to the sea.

Temperature rise

From 1961 to 2003, the global ocean temperature has risen by 0.10 °C from the surface to a depth of 700 m. There is variability both year-to-year and over longer time scales, with global ocean heat content observations showing high rates of warming for 1991 to 2003, but some cooling from 2003 to 2007. The temperature of the Antarctic Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's oceans as a whole . As well as having effects on ecosystems (e.g. by melting sea ice, affecting algae that grow on its underside), warming reduces the ocean's ability to absorb CO₂.

Acidification

Ocean acidification is an effect of rising concentrations of CO₂ in the atmosphere, and is not a direct consequence of global warming. The oceans soak up much of the CO₂ produced by living organisms, either as dissolved gas, or in the skeletons of tiny marine creatures that fall to the bottom to become chalk or limestone. Oceans currently absorb about one tonne of CO₂ per person per year. It is estimated that the oceans have absorbed around half of all CO₂ generated by human activities since 1800 (118 ± 19 petagrams of carbon from 1800 to 1994).

In water, CO₂ becomes a weak carbonic acid, and the increase in the greenhouse gas since the Industrial Revolution has already lowered the average pH (the laboratory measure of acidity) of seawater by 0.1 units, to 8.2. Predicted emissions could lower the pH by a further 0.5 by 2100, to a level probably not seen for hundreds of millennia and, critically, at a rate of change probably 100 times greater than at any time over this period.

There are concerns that increasing acidification could have a particularly detrimental effect on corals (16% of the world's coral reefs have died from bleaching caused by warm water in 1998, which coincidentally was the warmest year ever recorded) and other marine organisms with calcium carbonate shells.

In November 2009 an article in Science by scientists at Canada's Department of Fisheries and Oceans reported they had found very low levels of the building blocks for the calcium chloride that forms plankton shells in the Beaufort Sea. Fiona McLaughlin, one of the DFO authors, asserted that the increasing acidification of the Arctic Ocean was close to the point it would start dissolving the walls of existing plankton: " Arctic ecosystem may be risk. In actual fact, they'll dissolve the shells." Because cold water absorbs CO2 more readily than warmer water the acidification is more severe in the polar regions. McLaughlin predicted the acidified water would travel to the North Atlantice within the next ten years.

Shutdown of thermohaline circulation

There is some speculation that global warming could, via a shutdown or slowdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localized cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in that region. This would affect in particular areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift.

The chances of this near-term collapse of the circulation are unclear; there is some evidence for the short-term stability of the Gulf Stream and possible weakening of the North Atlantic drift. However, the degree of weakening, and whether it will be sufficient to shut down the circulation, is under debate. As yet, no cooling has been found in northern Europe or nearby seas. Lenton et al. found that "simulations clearly pass a THC tipping point this century".

Oxygen depletion

The amount of oxygen dissolved in the oceans may decline, with adverse consequences for ocean life.

Positive feedback effects

Some observed and potential effects of global warming are positive feedbacks, which contribute directly to further global warming. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report states that "Anthropogenic warming could lead to some effects that are abrupt or irreversible, depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change." This is largely because of the existence of these positive feedbacks.

Methane release from melting permafrost peat bogs

Western Siberia is the world's largest peat bog, a one million square kilometer region of permafrost peat bog that was formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age. The melting of its permafrost is likely to lead to the release, over decades, of large quantities of methane. As much as 70,000 million tonnes of methane, an extremely effective greenhouse gas, might be released over the next few decades, creating an additional source of greenhouse gas emissions. Similar melting has been observed in eastern Siberia . Lawrence et al. (2008) suggest that a rapid melting of Arctic sea ice may start a feedback loop that rapidly melts Arctic permafrost, triggering further warming.

Methane release from hydrates

Methane clathrate, also called methane hydrate, is a form of water ice that contains a large amount of methane within its crystal structure. Extremely large deposits of methane clathrate have been found under sediments on the ocean floors of Earth. The sudden release of large amounts of natural gas from methane clathrate deposits, in a runaway greenhouse effect, has been hypothesized as a cause of past and possibly future climate changes. The release of this trapped methane is a potential major outcome of a rise in temperature; it is thought that this might increase the global temperature by an additional 5° in itself, as methane is much more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. The theory also predicts this will greatly affect available oxygen content of the atmosphere. This theory has been proposed to explain the most severe mass extinction event on earth known as the Permian–Triassic extinction event. In 2008, a research expedition for the American Geophysical Union detected levels of methane up to 100 times above normal in the Siberian Arctic, likely being released by methane clathrates being released by holes in a frozen 'lid' of seabed permafrost, around the outfall of the Lena River and the area between the Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea.

Carbon cycle feedbacks

There have been predictions, and some evidence, that global warming might cause loss of carbon from terrestrial ecosystems, leading to an increase of atmospheric CO₂ levels. Several climate models indicate that global warming through the 21st century could be accelerated by the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to such warming. All 11 models in the C4MIP study found that a larger fraction of anthropogenic CO₂ will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO₂ varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO₂ levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5 °C. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. The strongest feedbacks in these cases are due to increased respiration of carbon from soils throughout the high latitude boreal forests of the Northern Hemisphere. One model in particular (HadCM3) indicates a secondary carbon cycle feedback due to the loss of much of the Amazon Rainforest in response to significantly reduced precipitation over tropical South America. While models disagree on the strength of any terrestrial carbon cycle feedback, they each suggest any such feedback would accelerate global warming.

Observations show that soils in England have been losing carbon at the rate of four million tonnes a year for the past 25 years according to a paper in Nature by Bellamy et al. in September 2005, who note that these results are unlikely to be explained by land use changes. Results such as this rely on a dense sampling network and thus are not available on a global scale. Extrapolating to all of the United Kingdom, they estimate annual losses of 13 million tons per year. This is as much as the annual reductions in carbon dioxide emissions achieved by the UK under the Kyoto Treaty (12.7 million tons of carbon per year).

It has also been suggested (by Chris Freeman) that the release of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from peat bogs into water courses (from which it would in turn enter the atmosphere) constitutes a positive feedback for global warming. The carbon currently stored in peatlands (390-455 gigatonnes, one-third of the total land-based carbon store) is over half the amount of carbon already in the atmosphere. DOC levels in water courses are observably rising; Freeman's hypothesis is that, not elevated temperatures, but elevated levels of atmospheric CO₂ are responsible, through stimulation of primary productivity.

Tree deaths are believed to be increasing as a result of climate change, which is a positive feedback effect. This contradicts the previously widely-held view that increased natural vegetation would lead to a negative-feedback effect.

Forest fires

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report predicts that many mid-latitude regions, such as Mediterranean Europe, will experience decreased rainfall and an increased risk of drought, which in turn would allow forest fires to occur on larger scale, and more regularly. This releases more stored carbon into the atmosphere than the carbon cycle can naturally re-absorb, as well as reducing the overall forest area on the planet, creating a positive feedback loop. Part of that feedback loop is more rapid growth of replacement forests and a northward migration of forests as northern latitudes become more suitable climates for sustaining forests. There is a question of whether the burning of renewable fuels such as forests should be counted as contributing to global warming. Cook & Vizy also found that forest fires were likely in the Amazon Rainforest, eventually resulting in a transition to Caatinga vegetation in the Eastern Amazon region.

Retreat of sea ice

The sea absorbs heat from the sun, while the ice largely reflects the sun rays back to space. Thus, retreating sea ice will allow the sun to warm the now exposed sea water, contributing to further warming. The mechanism is the same as when a black car heats up faster in sunlight than a white car. This albedo change is also the main reason why IPCC predict polar temperatures in the northern hemisphere to rise up to twice as much as those of the rest of the world. In September 2007, the Arctic sea ice area reached about half the size of the average summer minimum area between 1979 to 2000. Also in September 2007, Arctic sea ice retreated far enough for the Northwest Passage to become navigable to shipping for the first time in recorded history. The record losses of 2007 and 2008 may, however, be temporary. Mark Serreze of the US National Snow and Ice Data Center views 2030 as a "reasonable estimate" for when the summertime Arctic ice cap might be ice-free. The polar amplification of global warming is not predicted to occur in the southern hemisphere. The Antarctic sea ice reached its greatest extent on record since the beginning of observation in 1979, but the gain in ice in the south is exceeded by the loss in the north. The trend for global sea ice, northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere combined is clearly a decline.

Effect on sulfur aerosols

Sulfur aerosols, especially stratospheric sulfur aerosols have a significant effect on climate. One source of such aerosols is the sulfur cycle, where plankton release gases such as DMS which eventually becomes oxidised to sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere. Disruption to the oceans as a result of ocean acidification or disruptions to the thermohaline circulation may result in disruption of the sulfur cycle, thus reducing its cooling effect on the planet through the creation of stratospheric sulfur aerosols.

Negative feedback effects

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Following Le Chatelier's principle, the chemical equilibrium of the Earth's carbon cycle will shift in response to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. The primary driver of this is the ocean, which absorbs anthropogenic CO₂ via the so-called solubility pump. At present this accounts for only about one third of the current emissions, but ultimately most (~75%) of the CO₂ emitted by human activities will dissolve in the ocean over a period of centuries: "A better approximation of the lifetime of fossil fuel CO₂ for public discussion might be 300 years, plus 25% that lasts forever". However, the rate at which the ocean will take it up in the future is less certain, and will be affected by stratification induced by warming and, potentially, changes in the ocean's thermohaline circulation.

Also, the thermal radiation of the Earth rises in proportion to the fourth power of temperature, increasing the amount of outgoing radiation as the Earth warms. The impact of this negative feedback effect is included in global climate models summarized by the IPCC.

Other consequences

Economic and social

Indigenous populations in high-latitude areas are already experiencing significant adverse impacts because of climate change. The impact of future climate change on human systems will likely be unevenly distributed. Africa is probably the most vulnerable continent to future climate change. Developing countries are probably more vulnerable to climate change than developed countries. With warming of 1-2°C above 1990-2000 levels, it is likely that key negative impacts would be experienced in some regions, e.g., Arctic nations and small islands. In other regions, some population groups would be threatened by this level of warming, e.g., high-altitude communities and coastal-zone communities with significant levels of poverty. Above 2-3°C warming, it is likely that most countries would experience net negative impacts.

The total economic impacts of climate change are highly uncertain. Typical estimates of climate change impacts are of a change in gross world product of plus or minus a few percent. Small changes in gross world product could be associated with relatively large changes in national economies.

Insurance

An industry very directly affected by the risks is the insurance industry. According to a 2005 report from the Association of British Insurers, limiting carbon emissions could avoid 80% of the projected additional annual cost of tropical cyclones by the 2080s. A June 2004 report by the Association of British Insurers declared "Climate change is not a remote issue for future generations to deal with. It is, in various forms, here already, impacting on insurers' businesses now." It noted that weather risks for households and property were already increasing by 2-4 % per year due to changing weather, and that claims for storm and flood damages in the UK had doubled to over £6 billion over the period 1998–2003, compared to the previous five years. The results are rising insurance premiums, and the risk that in some areas flood insurance will become unaffordable for some.

Financial institutions, including the world's two largest insurance companies, Munich Re and Swiss Re, warned in a 2002 study that "the increasing frequency of severe climatic events, coupled with social trends" could cost almost US$ 150 billion each year in the next decade. These costs would, through increased costs related to insurance and disaster relief, burden customers, taxpayers, and industry alike.

In the United States, insurance losses have also greatly increased. According to Choi and Fisher (2003) each 1% increase in annual precipitation could enlarge catastrophe loss by as much as 2.8%. Gross increases are mostly attributed to increased population and property values in vulnerable coastal areas, though there was also an increase in frequency of weather-related events like heavy rainfalls since the 1950s.

Transport

Roads, airport runways, railway lines and pipelines, (including oil pipelines, sewers, water mains etc) may require increased maintenance and renewal as they become subject to greater temperature variation. Regions already adversely affected include areas of permafrost, which are subject to high levels of subsidence, resulting in buckling roads, sunken foundations, and severely cracked runways.

Effects on agriculture

Food

Climate change is expected to have a mixed effect on agriculture, with some regions benefitting from moderate temperature increases and others being negatively affected. Low-latitude areas are at most risk of suffering decreased crop yields. Mid- and high-latitude areas could see increased yields for temperature increases of up to 1-3°C (relative to the period 1980-99). According to the IPCC report, above 3°C of warming, global agricultural production might decline, but this statement is made with low to medium confidence. Most of the agricultural studies assessed in the Report do not include changes in extreme weather events, changes in the spread of pests and diseases, or potential developments that may aid adaptation to climate change.

An article in the New Scientist describes how rice crops might be strongly affected by rising temperatures. At a 2005 Conference held by the Royal Society, the benefits of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were said to be outweighed by the negative impacts of climate change.

Distribution of impacts

In Iceland, rising temperatures have made possible the widespread sowing of barley, which was untenable twenty years ago. Some of the warming is due to a local (possibly temporary) effect via ocean currents from the Caribbean, which has also affected fish stocks. By the mid-21st century, in Siberia and elsewhere in Russia, climate change is expected to expand the scope for agriculture. In East and Southeast Asia, crop yields could increase up to 20%, while in Central and South Asia, yields could decrease by up to 30%. In drier areas of Latin America, productivity of some important crops is expected to decline, while in temperate zones, soybean yields are expected to increase. In Northern Europe, climate change is expected to initially benefit crop yields.Subsistence and commercial agriculture are expected to be adversely affected by climate change in small islands. Without further adaptation, by 2030, production from agriculture is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern Australia, and parts of eastern New Zealand. Initial benefits are projected in western and southern areas of New Zealand.

In North America, over the first few decades of this century, moderate climate change is projected to increase aggregate yields of rain-fed agriculture by 5-20%, but with important variability among regions. According to a 2006 paper by Deschenes and Greenstone, predicted increases in temperature and precipitation will have virtually no effect on the most important crops in the US

In Africa, climate change is expected to severely compromise agricultural production and access to food. Africa's geography makes it particularly vulnerable, and seventy per cent of the population rely on rain-fed agriculture for their livelihoods. Tanzania's official report on climate change suggests that the areas that usually get two rainfalls in the year will probably get more, and those that get only one rainy season will get far less. The net result is expected to be that 33% less maize—the country's staple crop—will be grown. Alongside other factors, regional climate change - in particular, reduced precipitation - is thought to have contributed to the conflict in Darfur. The combination of decades of drought, desertification and overpopulation are among the causes of the conflict, because the Baggara Arab nomads searching for water have to take their livestock further south, to land mainly occupied by farming peoples.

Coasts and low-lying areas

For historical reasons to do with trade, many of the world's largest and most prosperous cities are on the coast. In developing countries, the poorest often live on floodplains, because it is the only available space, or fertile agricultural land. These settlements often lack infrastructure such as dykes and early warning systems. Poorer communities also tend to lack the insurance, savings or access to credit needed to recover from disasters. With future climate change, it is likely that densely populated coastal areas will face increased risk of sea level rise and damages due to more intense extreme weather events. Due to differences in adaptive capacity, adaptation of the coasts of developing countries will probably be more difficult than for the coasts of developed countries. A 2006 study by Nicholls and Tol considers the effects of sea level rise:

The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible.

Migration

Some Pacific Ocean island nations, such as Tuvalu, are concerned about the possibility of an eventual evacuation, as flood defense may become economically unviable for them. Tuvalu already has an ad hoc agreement with New Zealand to allow phased relocation.

In the 1990s a variety of estimates placed the number of environmental refugees at around 25 million. (Environmental refugees are not included in the official definition of refugees, which only includes migrants fleeing persecution.) The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which advises the world’s governments under the auspices of the UN, estimated that 150 million environmental refugees will exist in the year 2050, due mainly to the effects of coastal flooding, shoreline erosion and agricultural disruption (150 million means 1.5% of 2050’s predicted 10 billion world population).

Northwest Passage

Melting Arctic ice may open the Northwest Passage in summer, which would cut 5,000 nautical miles (9,000 km) from shipping routes between Europe and Asia. This would be of particular benefit for supertankers which are too big to fit through the Panama Canal and currently have to go around the tip of South America. According to the Canadian Ice Service, the amount of ice in Canada's eastern Arctic Archipelago decreased by 15% between 1969 and 2004.

In September 2007, the Arctic Ice Cap retreated far enough for the Northwest Passage to become navigable to shipping for the first time in recorded history.

In August, 2008, melting sea ice simultaneously opened up the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route, making it possible to sail around the Arctic ice cap. The Northwest Passage opened August 25, 2008, and the remaining tongue of ice blocking the Northern Sea Route dissolved a few days later. Because of Arctic shrinkage, the Beluga group of Bremen, Germany, announced plans to send the first ship through the Northern Sea Route in 2009.

Development

The combined effects of global warming may have particularly harsh effects on people and countries without the resources to mitigate those effects. This may slow economic development and poverty reduction, and make it harder to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.

In October 2004 the Working Group on Climate Change and Development, a coalition of development and environment NGOs, issued a report Up in Smoke on the effects of climate change on development. This report, and the July 2005 report Africa - Up in Smoke? predicted increased hunger and disease due to decreased rainfall and severe weather events, particularly in Africa. These are likely to have severe impacts on development for those affected.

Ecosystems

Unchecked global warming could affect most terrestrial ecoregions. Increasing global temperature means that ecosystems will change; some species are being forced out of their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of changing conditions, while others are flourishing. Secondary effects of global warming, such as lessened snow cover, rising sea levels, and weather changes, may influence not only human activities but also the ecosystem. Studying the association between Earth climate and extinctions over the past 520 million years, scientists from the University of York write, "The global temperatures predicted for the coming centuries may trigger a new ‘mass extinction event’, where over 50 per cent of animal and plant species would be wiped out."

Many of the species at risk are Arctic and Antarctic fauna such as polar bears and Emperor Penguins. In the Arctic, the waters of Hudson Bay are ice-free for three weeks longer than they were thirty years ago, affecting polar bears, which prefer to hunt on sea ice. Species that rely on cold weather conditions such as gyrfalcons, and Snowy Owls that prey on lemmings that use the cold winter to their advantage may be hit hard. Marine invertebrates enjoy peak growth at the temperatures they have adapted to, regardless of how cold these may be, and cold-blooded animals found at greater latitudes and altitudes generally grow faster to compensate for the short growing season. Warmer-than-ideal conditions result in higher metabolism and consequent reductions in body size despite increased foraging, which in turn elevates the risk of predation. Indeed, even a slight increase in temperature during development impairs growth efficiency and survival rate in rainbow trout.

Rising temperatures are beginning to have a noticeable impact on birds, and butterflies have shifted their ranges northward by 200 km in Europe and North America. Plants lag behind, and larger animals' migration is slowed down by cities and roads. In Britain, spring butterflies are appearing an average of 6 days earlier than two decades ago .

A 2002 article in Nature surveyed the scientific literature to find recent changes in range or seasonal behaviour by plant and animal species. Of species showing recent change, 4 out of 5 shifted their ranges towards the poles or higher altitudes, creating "refugee species". Frogs were breeding, flowers blossoming and birds migrating an average 2.3 days earlier each decade; butterflies, birds and plants moving towards the poles by 6.1 km per decade. A 2005 study concludes human activity is the cause of the temperature rise and resultant changing species behaviour, and links these effects with the predictions of climate models to provide validation for them . Scientists have observed that Antarctic hair grass is colonizing areas of Antarctica where previously their survival range was limited.

Mechanistic studies have documented extinctions due to recent climate change: McLaughlin et al. documented two populations of Bay checkerspot butterfly being threatened by precipitation change. Parmesan states, "Few studies have been conducted at a scale that encompasses an entire species" and McLaughlin et al. agreed "few mechanistic studies have linked extinctions to recent climate change." Daniel Botkin and other authors in one study believe that projected rates of extinction are overestimated.

Many species of freshwater and saltwater plants and animals are dependent on glacier-fed waters to ensure a cold water habitat that they have adapted to. Some species of freshwater fish need cold water to survive and to reproduce, and this is especially true with Salmon and Cutthroat trout. Reduced glacier runoff can lead to insufficient stream flow to allow these species to thrive. Ocean krill, a cornerstone species, prefer cold water and are the primary food source for aquatic mammals such as the Blue Whale. Alterations to the ocean currents, due to increased freshwater inputs from glacier melt, and the potential alterations to thermohaline circulation of the worlds oceans, may affect existing fisheries upon which humans depend as well.

The white lemuroid possum, only found in the mountain forests of northern Queensland, has been named as the first mammal species to be driven extinct by man-made global warming. The White Possum has not been seen in over three years. These possums cannot survive extended temperatures over 30 °C (86 °F), which occurred in 2005. A final expedition to uncover any surviving White Possums is scheduled for 2009.

Forests

Pine forests in British Columbia have been devastated by a pine beetle infestation, which has expanded unhindered since 1998 at least in part due to the lack of severe winters since that time; a few days of extreme cold kill most mountain pine beetles and have kept outbreaks in the past naturally contained. The infestation, which (by November 2008) has killed about half of the province's lodgepole pines (33 million acres or 135,000 km) is an order of magnitude larger than any previously recorded outbreak and passed via unusually strong winds in 2007 over the continental divide to Alberta. An epidemic also started, be it at a lower rate, in 1999 in Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana. The United States forest service predicts that between 2011 and 2013 virtually all 5 million acres (20,000 km) of Colorado’s lodgepole pine trees over five inches (127 mm) in diameter will be lost.

As the northern forests are a carbon sink, while dead forests are a major carbon source, the loss of such large areas of forest has a positive feedback on global warming. In the worst years, the carbon emission due to beetle infestation of forests in British Columbia alone approaches that of an average year of forest fires in all of Canada or five years worth of emissions from that country's transportation sources .

Besides the immediate ecological and economic impact, the huge dead forests provide a fire risk. Even many healthy forests appear to face an increased risk of forest fires because of warming climates. The 10-year average of boreal forest burned in North America, after several decades of around 10,000 km² (2.5 million acres), has increased steadily since 1970 to more than 28,000 km² (7 million acres) annually.. Though this change may be due in part to changes in forest management practices, in the western U.S., since 1986, longer, warmer summers have resulted in a fourfold increase of major wildfires and a sixfold increase in the area of forest burned, compared to the period from 1970 to 1986. A similar increase in wildfire activity has been reported in Canada from 1920 to 1999.

Forest fires in Indonesia have dramatically increased since 1997 as well. These fires are often actively started to clear forest for agriculture. They can set fire to the large peat bogs in the region and the CO₂ released by these peat bog fires has been estimated, in an average year, to be 15% of the quantity of CO₂ produced by fossil fuel combustion.

Mountains

Mountains cover approximately 25 percent of earth's surface and provide a home to more than one-tenth of global human population. Changes in global climate pose a number of potential risks to mountain habitats. Researchers expect that over time, climate change will affect mountain and lowland ecosystems, the frequency and intensity of forest fires, the diversity of wildlife, and the distribution of water.

Studies suggest that a warmer climate in the United States would cause lower-elevation habitats to expand into the higher alpine zone. Such a shift would encroach on the rare alpine meadows and other high-altitude habitats. High-elevation plants and animals have limited space available for new habitat as they move higher on the mountains in order to adapt to long-term changes in regional climate.

Changes in climate will also affect the depth of the mountains snowpacks and glaciers. Any changes in their seasonal melting can have powerful impacts on areas that rely on freshwater runoff from mountains. Rising temperature may cause snow to melt earlier and faster in the spring and shift the timing and distribution of runoff. These changes could affect the availability of freshwater for natural systems and human uses.

Ecological productivity

According to a 2003 paper by Smith and Hitz, it is reasonable to assume that the relationship between increased global mean temperature and ecosystem productivity is parabolic. Higher carbon dioxide concentrations will favourably affect plant growth and demand for water. Higher temperatures could initially be favourable for plant growth. Eventually, increased growth would peak then decline. According to the IPCC report, a global average temperature increase exceeding 1.5-2.5°C (relative to the period 1980-99), would likely have a predominantly negative impact on ecosystem goods and services, e.g., water and food supply. Research done by the Swiss Canopy Crane Project suggests that slow-growing trees only are stimulated in growth for a short period under higher CO₂ levels, while faster growing plants like liana benefit in the long term. In general, but especially in rainforests, this means that liana become the prevalent species; and because they decompose much faster than trees their carbon content is more quickly returned to the atmosphere. Slow growing trees incorporate atmospheric carbon for decades.

Water scarcity

Sea level rise is projected to increase salt-water intrusion into groundwater in some regions, affecting drinking water and agriculture in coastal zones. Increased evaporation will reduce the effectiveness of reservoirs. Increased extreme weather means more water falls on hardened ground unable to absorb it, leading to flash floods instead of a replenishment of soil moisture or groundwater levels. In some areas, shrinking glaciers threaten the water supply. The continued retreat of glaciers will have a number of different effects. In areas that are heavily dependent on water runoff from glaciers that melt during the warmer summer months, a continuation of the current retreat will eventually deplete the glacial ice and substantially reduce or eliminate runoff. A reduction in runoff will affect the ability to irrigate crops and will reduce summer stream flows necessary to keep dams and reservoirs replenished. This situation is particularly acute for irrigation in South America, where numerous artificial lakes are filled almost exclusively by glacial melt.Template:Ref harv Central Asian countries have also been historically dependent on the seasonal glacier melt water for irrigation and drinking supplies. In Norway, the Alps, and the Pacific Northwest of North America, glacier runoff is important for hydropower. Higher temperatures will also increase the demand for water for the purposes of cooling and hydration.

In the Sahel, there has been an unusually wet period from 1950 until 1970, followed by extremely dry years from 1970 to 1990. From 1990 until 2004 rainfall returned to levels slightly below the 1898–1993 average, but year-to-year variability was high.

Health

Climate change currently contributes to the burden of disease and premature deaths. Economic development will affect how effective adaptation to climate change will be. According to the IPCC report, it is likely that:

• climate change will bring some benefits, such as reduced cold deaths.
• the balance of positive and negative health impacts will vary from one location to another.
• adverse health impacts will be greatest in low-income countries.
• the negative health impacts of climate change will outweigh the benefits, especially in developing countries. Some examples of negative health impacts include increased malnutrition, increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts, and increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases.

According to a 2009 study by UCL academics, climate change and global warming pose the biggest threat to human health in the 21st century.

Direct effects of temperature rise

The most direct effect of climate change on humans might be the impacts of hotter temperatures themselves. Extreme high temperatures increase the number of people who die on a given day for many reasons: people with heart problems are vulnerable because one's cardiovascular system must work harder to keep the body cool during hot weather, heat exhaustion, and some respiratory problems increase. Global warming could mean more cardiovascular diseases, doctors warn. Higher air temperature also increase the concentration of ozone at ground level. In the lower atmosphere, ozone is a harmful pollutant. It damages lung tissues and causes problems for people with asthma and other lung diseases.

Rising temperatures have two opposing direct effects on mortality: higher temperatures in winter reduce deaths from cold; higher temperatures in summer increase heat-related deaths. The net local impact of these two direct effects depends on the current climate in a particular area. Palutikof et al. (1996) calculate that in England and Wales for a 1 °C temperature rise the reduced deaths from cold outweigh the increased deaths from heat, resulting in a reduction in annual average mortality of 7000, while Keatinge et al. (2000) “suggest that any increases in mortality due to increased temperatures would be outweighed by much larger short term declines in cold related mortalities.” Cold-related deaths are far more numerous than heat-related deaths in the United States, Europe, and almost all countries outside the tropics. During 1979–1999, a total of 3,829 deaths in the United States were associated with excessive heat due to weather conditions, while in that same period a total of 13,970 deaths were attributed to hypothermia. In Europe, mean annual heat related mortalities are 304 in North Finland, 445 in Athens, and 40 in London, while cold related mortalities are 2457, 2533, and 3129 respectively. According to Keatinge et al. (2000), “populations in Europe have adjusted successfully to mean summer temperatures ranging from 13.5°C to 24.1°C, and can be expected to adjust to global warming predicted for the next half century with little sustained increase in heat related mortality.”

A government report shows decreased mortality due to recent warming and predicts increased mortality due to future warming in the United Kingdom. The 2003 European heat wave killed 22,000–35,000 people, based on normal mortality rates. Peter A. Stott from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research estimated with 90% confidence that past human influence on climate was responsible for at least half the risk of the 2003 European summer heat-wave.

Spread of disease

Global warming may extend the favourable zones for vectors conveying infectious disease such as dengue fever, West Nile virus, and malaria. In poorer countries, this may simply lead to higher incidence of such diseases. In richer countries, where such diseases have been eliminated or kept in check by vaccination, draining swamps and using pesticides, the consequences may be felt more in economic than health terms. The World Health Organization (WHO) says global warming could lead to a major increase in insect-borne diseases in Britain and Europe, as northern Europe becomes warmer, ticks—which carry encephalitis and lyme disease—and sandflies—which carry visceral leishmaniasis—are likely to move in. However, malaria has always been a common threat in European past, with the last epidemic occurring in the Netherlands during the 1950s. In the United States, Malaria has been endemic in as much as 36 states (including Washington, North Dakota, Michigan and New York) until the 1940s. By 1949, the country was declared free of malaria as a significant public health problem, after more than 4,650,000 house DDT spray applications had been made.

The World Health Organisation estimates 150,000 deaths annually "as a result of climate change", of which half in the Asia-Pacific region. In April 2008, it reported that, as a result of increased temperatures, the number of malaria infections is expected to increase in the highland areas of Papua New Guinea.

Children

In 2007, the American Academy of Pediatrics issued the policy statement Global Climate Change and Children's Health:

Anticipated direct health consequences of climate change include injury and death from extreme weather events and natural disasters, increases in climate-sensitive infectious diseases, increases in air pollution–related illness, and more heat-related, potentially fatal, illness. Within all of these categories, children have increased vulnerability compared with other groups.

On 2008-04-29, a UNICEF UK Report found that global warming is already reducing the quality of the world's most vulnerable children's lives and making it more difficult to meet the UN Millennium Development Goals. Global warming will reduce access to clean water and food supplies, particularly in Africa and Asia. Disasters, violence and disease are expected to be more frequent and intense, making the future of the world's poorest children more bleak.

Security

The Military Advisory Board, a panel of retired U.S. generals and admirals released a report entitled "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change." The report predicts that global warming will have security implications, in particular serving as a "threat multiplier" in already volatile regions. Britain's Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett argues that “An unstable climate will exacerbate some of the core drivers of conflict, such as migratory pressures and competition for resources.” And several weeks earlier, U.S. Senators Chuck Hagel (R-NB) and Richard Durbin (D-IL) introduced a bill in the U.S. Congress that would require federal intelligence agencies to collaborate on a National Intelligence Estimate to evaluate the security challenges presented by climate change.

In November 2007, two Washington think tanks, the established Center for Strategic and International Studies and the newer Center for a New American Security, published a report analysing the worldwide security implications of three different global warming scenarios. The report considers three different scenarios, two over a roughly 30 year perspective and one covering the time up to 2100. Its general results conclude that flooding "...has the potential to challenge regional and even national identities. Armed conflict between nations over resources, such as the Nile and its tributaries, is likely..." and that "Perhaps the most worrisome problems associated with rising temperatures and sea levels are from large-scale migrations of people -- both inside nations and across existing national borders."

A 2009 study questions the assumption that rising temperatures and violence are linked. Richard Tol and Sebastian Wagner collected data on climate and conflict in Europe between the years 1000 and 2000. They concluded that until the mid-18th century, there was a significant negative correlation between the number of conflicts and average temperature, but after that no statistically meaningful relationship can be observed. Tol and Wagner argue that the relationship between warfare and colder weather disappears around the time of the industrial revolution, when agriculture and transport improve dramatically. The Economist suggests that the lesson of their research is that climate-induced conflict can be minimised by continuing the process of crop improvement.

See also

Notes

1. Attention: This template ({{cite doi}}) is deprecated. To cite the publication identified by doi:10.1073/pnas.0812355106, please use {{cite journal}} (if it was published in a bona fide academic journal, otherwise {{cite report}} with |doi=10.1073/pnas.0812355106 instead.
2. In this article, the phrases "global warming" and "climate change" are used interchangably.
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External links

• Ecological Impacts of Climate Change - National Academy of Sciences
• EPA: Health and Environmental Effects of Global Warming
• What climate change does - IRIN
• How climate change works - IRIN
• Gathering Storm - the humanitarian impact of climate change - IRIN
• The Impacts of Global Warming and Climate Change from The Nature Conservancy
• "Anthropogenic Effects on Tropical Cyclone Activity" (Kerry Emanuel)
• "The Climate of Man", The New Yorker (2005): Part 1, Part 2, Part 3
• American Meteorological Society's Environmental Science Seminar Series (Oct 2005): "Hurricanes: Are They Changing and Are We Adequately Prepared for the Future?"
  • "How are hurricanes changing with global warming?" (Kevin E. Trenberth)
  • "Changes in hurricane intensity in a warming environment" (Judith Curry)
  • "Hurricanes and Climate" (Kerry Emanuel)
• Oliver James, The Guardian, June 30, 2005 Face the facts: For many people climate change is too depressing to think about, and some prefer to simply pretend it doesn't exist
• Mark Lynas, The Guardian, March 31, 2004, "Vanishing worlds" Story about a vanishing Peruvian glacier
• See the impacts of climate change happening now on three Australian ecosystems: 'Tipping Point', Catalyst, ABC-TV
• Effects of global warming on skiing
• Elevated levels of atmospheric CO₂ decrease the nutritional value of plants
• Royal Society, June 30, 2005, "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide"
• Time Magazine's "Global Warming: The Culprit?" (Time Magazine, October 3, 2005, pages 42–46)
• Glaciers Not On Simple, Upward Trend Of Melting sciencedaily.com, Feb. 21, 2007 "Two of Greenland's largest glaciers (Kangerdlugssuaq and Helheim) shrank dramatically ... between 2004 and 2005. And then, less than two years later, they returned to near their previous rates of discharge.

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• Articles that may be too long from March 2009
• Climate change
• Effects of global warming