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===Romania=== ===Romania===
{{Main|Romania and the euro}} {{Main|Romania and the euro}}
Romania is scheduled to replace the current national currency, the ], with the euro once Romania fulfils the ]. The euro is scheduled to be adopted by Romania in 2015.<ref name="Government of Romania">{{Cite web|url=http://www.cdep.ro/proiecte/2009/700/20/1/raport2010.pdf |format=PDF |title=Raport privind situația macroeconomică |publisher=Government of Romania |accessdate=31 December 2009}}</ref><ref name="Romanian target for euro adoption">{{cite web|url=http://business-review.ro/news/romania-to-join-the-euro-zone-in-2015-12691/|title=Romania to join the euro zone in 2015|publisher=Business Review|date=1 November 2011}}</ref> According to the Romanian government, it will not be able to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism before 2013–2014.<ref name="business-review.ro">http://business-review.ro/news/update-new-euro-adoption-target-to-be-set-by-the-end-of-the-month-pm/11455/</ref> In April 2012, the Romanian convergens report submitted under the ], confirmed 1 January 2015 still to be the target date for the aspired euro adoption.<ref name="Romanian Convergence Programme 2012">{{cite web|url=http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/nd/cp2012_romania_en.pdf|title=Government of Romania: 2012-15 Convergence Programme|publisher=European Commission|date=30 April 2012|accessdate=1 September 2012}}</ref> Romania is scheduled to replace the current national currency, the ], with the euro once Romania fulfils the ]. The euro is scheduled to be adopted by Romania on 1 January 2015.<ref name="Government of Romania">{{Cite web|url=http://www.cdep.ro/proiecte/2009/700/20/1/raport2010.pdf |format=PDF |title=Raport privind situația macroeconomică |publisher=Government of Romania |accessdate=31 December 2009}}</ref><ref name="Romanian target for euro adoption">{{cite web|url=http://business-review.ro/news/romania-to-join-the-euro-zone-in-2015-12691/|title=Romania to join the euro zone in 2015|publisher=Business Review|date=1 November 2011}}</ref> According to the Romanian government, it will not be able to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism before 2013–2014.<ref name="business-review.ro">http://business-review.ro/news/update-new-euro-adoption-target-to-be-set-by-the-end-of-the-month-pm/11455/</ref> In April 2012, the Romanian convergens report submitted under the ], confirmed 1 January 2015 still to be the target date for the aspired euro adoption.<ref name="Romanian Convergence Programme 2012">{{cite web|url=http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/nd/cp2012_romania_en.pdf|title=Government of Romania: 2012-15 Convergence Programme|publisher=European Commission|date=30 April 2012|accessdate=1 September 2012}}</ref> The target date is however no longer possible to achieve, as it would have required Romania to join ERM2 before October 2012. If Romania decides to join ERM2 before October 2013, the country will now instead be headed to comply with the fifth euro-adaption criteria (the demand for minimum 2-years of ERM2-membership) in 2015; meaning that the earliest possible time for Romania to adopt the euro will be on 1 January 2016. Because for statistical reasons any euro-adoption will only happen on the upcomming 1 January, after the exact point of time where the country has been declared "euro ready" by ECB; and for practical reasons minimum 3 months are also needed after approval for Romania+ECB to prepare for the adoption to take place. So that is why 30 September is the ultimately last deadline for compliance, ahead of any targetted 1 January adoption.


===Sweden=== ===Sweden===
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|{{ROU}} |{{ROU}}
|<span style="display:none">2015-01-01</span>'''1 January 2015'''<ref name="Government of Romania"/><ref name="Romanian target for euro adoption"/><ref name="Official target dates for euro adoption"/><br> <small>''(Not before Jan.2016)''</small> |<span style="display:none">2015-01-01</span>'''1 January 2015'''<ref name="Government of Romania"/><ref name="Romanian target for euro adoption"/><ref name="Official target dates for euro adoption"/><br> <small>''(Not before Jan.2016)''</small>
<!-- Official Romanian "target date", is now in conflict with the time needed (min.2-years) to comply with the ERM-2 criteria, and followed by a criteria evaluation that always happen in April with adoption in January, then the euro adoption can not be before 1.jan.2016 (and this "earliest adoption date" will slip further away, in case Romania does not join the ERM2 before April 2013) --> <!-- Official Romanian "target date", is now in conflict with the time needed (min.2-years) to comply with the ERM-2 criteria. Romania had a deadline on 30 September 2012 to join ERM2, in order for the target date still to be achievable. If Romania join ERM-2 before 30 September 2013, this will make it possible for the country to apply for euro adoption two years later, and as the adoption only takes place on 1 January after being "euro approved" by ECB (and for pracitical reasons minimum 3 months are needed after approval for Romania+ECB to prepare for the adoption to take place), the adoption will then at the earliest take place on 1.Jan.2016. -->
|<span style="display:none">2013</span>'''Expected in 2013'''<ref name="business-review.ro"/> |<span style="display:none">2013</span>'''Expected in 2013'''<ref name="business-review.ro"/>
|<small> Inter-institutional working group MoF-NBP</small> |<small> Inter-institutional working group MoF-NBP</small>

Revision as of 15:27, 20 October 2012

Bulgaria: Obliged to join but not yet in ERM II. No official target date for adoption. Czech Republic: Obliged to join but not yet in ERM II. No official target date for adoption. Denmark: ERM II member, but has a formal opt-out. E U R O Z O N E Hungary: Obliged to join but not yet in ERM II. No official target date for adoption. Latvia: ERM II participant. Obliged to join. Official target date for adoption of 1 January 2014. Lithuania: ERM II participant. Obliged to join. No official target date for adoption. Poland: Obliged to join but not yet in ERM II. No official target date for adoption. Romania: Obliged to join but not yet in ERM II. Official target date for adoption of 1 January 2015. Sweden: Legally obliged to join but holds a de facto opt-out. UK: Formal opt-out.

Hover over flags for details of euro adoption   Eurozone states   ERM II states   Other EU states   Non-EU states
(agreement with the EU)
  Non-EU states
(unilaterally adopted)

The enlargement of the eurozone is an ongoing process within the European Union (EU). All Member states of the European Union, except for Denmark, the United Kingdom and de facto Sweden, are obliged to adopt the euro as their sole currency when they meet the criteria. This includes two years in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) and keeping inflation inline with the EU average.

Eleven EU states were part of the initial introduction in 1999. Greece joined in 2001 before the coins and notes were released and the other national currencies were retired. Slovenia joined the Eurozone on 1 January 2007, Cyprus and Malta joined on 1 January 2008, Slovakia joined on 1 January 2009, and Estonia joined the eurozone on 1 January 2011.

Of the remaining states on the agenda, the earliest expected accession is in 2014. Denmark is not obliged to join, but a referendum on the abolition of the opt-out from eurozone membership has been debated. Should the country decide to do so it may join the euro rapidly, as Denmark is already part of the ERM II. The United Kingdom and Sweden are outside of the ERM II.

Accession criteria

Main article: Euro convergence criteria

In order to join the eurozone officially, (thus being able to mint coins separately), a country must first be a member of the European Union, and then meet certain economic criteria, including accession to ERM II, which fixes the acceding country's national currency's exchange rate to the euro, within a specified band (normally ±15%).

European microstates that have monetary agreements with acceding countries can continue these agreements to mint separate coins on the accession of the larger state, but do not get a say in the economic affairs of the eurozone. This has been used to allow Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican City to mint their own coins, and Andorra is negotiating a similar agreement.

In 2009 the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested that countries should be allowed to "partially adopt" the euro, which would allow them to use the euro but would not give them a seat on the European Central Bank.


Convergence criteria (valid for the compliance check conducted by ECB in their June 2024 Report)
Country HICP inflation rate Excessive deficit procedure Exchange rate Long-term interest rate Compatibility of legislation
Budget deficit to GDP Debt-to-GDP ratio ERM II member Change in rate
Reference values Max. 3.3%
(as of May 2024)
None open (as of 19 June 2024) Min. 2 years
(as of 19 June 2024)
Max. ±15%
(for 2023)
Max. 4.8%
(as of May 2024)
Yes
(as of 27 March 2024)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2023)
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2023)
Bulgaria Bulgaria 5.1% None 3 years, 11 months 0.0% 4.0% Yes
1.9% 23.1%
Czech Republic Czech Republic 6.3% None No 2.3% 4.2% No
3.7% (exempt) 44.0%
Denmark Denmark 1.1% None 25 years, 5 months 0.2% 2.6% Un­known
-3.1% (surplus) 29.3%
Hungary Hungary 8.4% None No 2.4% 6.8% No
6.7% 73.5%
Poland Poland 6.1% None No 3.1% 5.6% No
5.1% 49.6%
Romania Romania 7.6% Open No -0.3% 6.4% No
6.6% 48.8%
Sweden Sweden 3.6% None No -8.0% 2.5% No
0.6% 31.2%
  Criterion fulfilled   Criterion potentially fulfilled: If the budget deficit exceeds the 3% limit, but is "close" to this value (the European Commission has deemed 3.5% to be close by in the past), then the criteria can still potentially be fulfilled if either the deficits in the previous two years are significantly declining towards the 3% limit, or if the excessive deficit is the result of exceptional circumstances which are temporary in nature (i.e. one-off expenditures triggered by a significant economic downturn, or by the implementation of economic reforms that are expected to deliver a significant positive impact on the government's future fiscal budgets). However, even if such "special circumstances" are found to exist, additional criteria must also be met to comply with the fiscal budget criterion. Additionally, if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60% but is "sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace" it can be deemed to be in compliance.   Criterion not fulfilled
Notes
  1. The rate of increase of the 12-month average HICP over the prior 12-month average must be no more than 1.5% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the similar HICP inflation rates in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these 3 states have a HICP rate significantly below the similarly averaged HICP rate for the eurozone (which according to ECB practice means more than 2% below), and if this low HICP rate has been primarily caused by exceptional circumstances (i.e. severe wage cuts or a strong recession), then such a state is not included in the calculation of the reference value and is replaced by the EU state with the fourth lowest HICP rate.
  2. The arithmetic average of the annual yield of 10-year government bonds as of the end of the past 12 months must be no more than 2.0% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the bond yields in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these states have bond yields which are significantly larger than the similarly averaged yield for the eurozone (which according to previous ECB reports means more than 2% above) and at the same time does not have complete funding access to financial markets (which is the case for as long as a government receives bailout funds), then such a state is not to be included in the calculation of the reference value.
  3. The change in the annual average exchange rate against the euro.
  4. Reference values from the Convergence Report of June 2024.
  5. ^ Belgium, Denmark, and the Netherlands were the reference states.
  6. The maximum allowed change in rate is ± 2.25% for Denmark.

Historical enlargements

Further information: History of the euro

The first enlargement, Greece, took place on 1 January 2001; before the euro entered its physical form in 2002, but after its formal creation in 1999. The first post-2002 enlargements were to the states who joined in 2004. First Slovenia, replacing the Slovenian tolar on 1 January 2007, then Cyprus and Malta on 1 January 2008. On 1 January 2009 Slovakia exchanged its koruna for the euro and on 1 January 2011 Estonia similarly exchanged its kroon for the euro.

The new EU members which joined bloc during the fifth enlargement wave (2004–2007) are all obliged to adopt the euro under the terms of their accession treaties, however in September 2011, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania said the euro zone they thought they were going to join, a monetary union, may very well end up being a very different union entailing much closer fiscal, economic and political convergence. "All seven countries agree to state that a change in the euro zone's legal status could change the conditions of their adhesion treaties," which "could force them to stage new referenda" on euro take-up, said a diplomatic source close to the talks to AFP.

ERM II members

EU members which have not adopted the euro
Non-eurozone member state Currency
(Code)
Central rate per €1 EU join date ERM II join date Government policy on euro adoption Convergence criteria compliance
(as of June 2024)
Notes
Bulgaria Bulgaria Lev
(BGN)
1.95583 2007-01-01 2020-07-10 Euro adoption on 1 July 2025 Compliant with 4 out of 5 criteria (all except inflation) The Bulgarian government expects to be in compliance with all criteria by the end of 2024
Czech Republic Czech Rep. Koruna
(CZK)
Free floating 2004-05-01 None Assessment of joining ERM-II to be completed by 2026 Compliant with 2 out of 5 criteria
Denmark Denmark Krone
(DKK)
7.46038 1973-01-01 1999-01-01 Not on government's agenda Not assessed due to opt-out from eurozone membership Rejected euro adoption by referendum in 2000
Hungary Hungary Forint
(HUF)
Free floating 2004-05-01 None Not on government's agenda Not compliant with any of the 5 criteria
Poland Poland Złoty
(PLN)
Free floating 2004-05-01 None Not on government's agenda Not compliant with any of the 5 criteria
Romania Romania Leu
(RON)
Free floating 2007-01-01 None ERM-II by 2026 and euro by 1 January 2029 Not compliant with any of the 5 criteria
Sweden Sweden Krona
(SEK)
Free floating 1995-01-01 None Not on government's agenda Compliant with 2 out of 5 criteria Rejected euro adoption by referendum in 2003. Still obliged to adopt the euro once compliant with all criteria.

Apart from Denmark and the United Kingdom, which have opt-outs under the Maastricht Treaty, all other EU members are legally obliged to join the eurozone. The following members have acceded to ERM II, in which they must spend two years, before they can adopt the euro.

Denmark

Main article: Denmark and the euro

Denmark has pegged its krone to the euro (€1 = DKK 7.46038 ± 2.25%) and the krone remains in the ERM. In December 1992 Denmark negotiated a number of opt-out clauses from the Maastricht Treaty via the Edinburgh Agreement, including not adopting the euro as currency. This was done in response to the Maastricht treaty having been rejected by the Danish people in a referendum earlier that year. As a result of the changes, the treaty was finally ratified in a subsequent referendum held in 1993. On 28 September 2000, another referendum was held in Denmark regarding the euro resulting in a 53.2% vote against joining.

On 22 November 2007, the newly re-elected Danish government declared its intention to hold a new referendum on the abolishment of the four opt-out clauses, including on the euro, by 2011. Several polls have been done each year; in 2008 and 2009 they generally but did not always show support among the Danes for adopting the euro.

The economic crisis has also led to a debate within the Faroe Islands, an autonomous Danish dependency outside the EU, about whether the islands should adopt the currency along the lines of other non-EU euro users, as previously they would have maintained their currency if Denmark adopted the euro.

Latvia

Further information: Latvian euro coins

Latvia has been a member state of the European Union since 1 May 2004 and is a member of the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union. Its currency, the Latvian lats, is in ERM II, and floats within 1% of the central rate, Ls 0.702804 = €1. Latvia had originally planned to adopt the euro on 1 January 2008 but this has been put back several times but after being elected in 2011, Latvian President Andris Bērziņš aims for his country to join in 2014: "Personally I'm very optimistic we'll join the euro on 1 January 2014. It's our goal and we are working hard to implement this process." This is still the official target as of late 2012 with Latvian Prime Minister Valdis Dombrovskis saying permission to join would be sought in 2013 and that "We don't think it's a sinking ship. We still see more positives than negatives."

Lithuania

Further information: Lithuanian euro coins

The Lithuanian litas is part of ERM II and in practice it is pegged to the euro at a rate of 3.45280 litai = €1. Lithuania originally set 1 January 2007 as the target date for joining the euro, but their application was rejected by the European Commission because inflation was slightly higher (0.1%) than the permitted maximum. In December 2006 the government approved a new convergence plan which put the expected adoption date to post-2010 due to inflation. In 2007, Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas hoped for adoption around 2010–11 though inflation was still a problem.

By the time of the 2010 European sovereign debt crisis, the expected date had been put further back to 2014. Lithuania expressed interest in a suggestion from the IMF that countries who aren't able to meet the Maastricht criteria are able to "partially adopt" the euro, using the currency but not getting a seat at the European Central Bank. Interviews with the Foreign Minister and Prime Minister in May and August 2012 respectivly highlighted that Lithuania still aimed to, and was able to, join the euro but would not set a date until the state of the eurozone post-crisis was clear.

The election of a new centre-left government in October 2012 has raised the possibility of further postponement of Lithuanian adoption of the euro.

Obliged to join

The following members must first join ERM II before they can adopt the euro:

Bulgaria

Main article: Bulgaria and the euro

The lev is not part of ERM II, but has been pegged to the euro since its launch (€1 = BGN 1.95583). It was previously pegged on a par to the German Mark. Hence, Bulgaria already fulfilled the great majority of the EMU membership criteria and must, from 2009, comply with the Maastricht criteria to join the eurozone in 2012, the tentative deadline set by Finance Minister Plamen Oresharski.

While the currency board which pegs Bulgaria to the euro has been seen as beneficial to the country fulfilling EMU criteria so early, the ECB has been pressuring Bulgaria to drop it as it did not know how to let a country using a currency board join the euro. The Prime Minister has stated the desire to keep the currency board until the euro was adopted. However, factors such as a high inflation, an unrealistic exchange rate with the euro and the country's low productivity are negatively affected by the system.

Bulgaria meets three and fails on one of the criteria in order to join the eurozone. It derogates on the price stability criterion, which envisages that its inflation does not exceed that of the three EU member states with the lowest inflation (Malta, the Netherlands and Denmark) by more than 1.5%. Bulgaria’s inflation in the 12 months to March 2008 reached 9.4%, well above the reference value of 3.2%, the report said.

On the upside, Bulgaria fulfills the state budget criterion, which foresees that the deficit does not exceed 3% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP). Over the past few years, the report said, the country has consistently improved its budget fundamentals and since 2003, a break-even point, the budget ran surpluses and in 2007 was at 3.4% of GDP. The EC forecasts that it will remain at 3.2% of GDP in both 2008 and 2009.

In regard to public debt, Bulgaria has also been within the prescribed cap of up to 60% of GDP. Government debt has also been declining consistently, from 50% of GDP to 18% in 2007. The expectation is to reach 11% of GDP in 2009.

Bulgaria was expected to enter ERM II in November 2009, but that target date has been moved. On 22 December 2009 Simeon Dyankov, Bulgaria's finance minister, said that the country would apply to join the ERM II in March 2010, but due to a high deficit Bulgaria won't apply to join the ERM II mechanism in 2010.

A 2008 analysis said that Bulgaria would not be able to join the Eurozone earlier than 2015, due to the high inflation and the repercussions of the global financial crisis of 2008.

Czech Republic

Main article: Czech Republic and the euro

The Czech Republic is bound by the Treaty of Accession 2003 to join the euro at some point, but this is not likely to come soon. The koruna is not part of ERM II. Since joining the EU in 2004, the Czech Republic has adopted a fiscal and monetary policy that aims to align its macroeconomic conditions with the rest of the European Union. Currently, the most pressing issue is the large Czech fiscal deficit. Originally, the Czech Republic aimed for entry into the ERM II in 2008 or 2009, but the current government has officially dropped the 2010 target date, saying it will clearly not meet the economic criteria.

Although the country is economically better positioned than other EU Members to join the euro, it is not expected before 2015 due to the political reluctance in this subject. Finance Minister of the interim government, Eduard Janota, said in Brussels in January 2010 that it was unrealistic for the Czech Republic to adopt the euro in 2015 without a profound public finance reform. Central bank governor Zdeněk Tůma even speculated about 2019. The debt crisis in the eurozone decreased interest in the Czech Republic towards it.

In late 2010 a discussion arose within the Czech government about negotiating an opt-out from joining the Eurozone. This discussion was partially initiated by Euro-sceptic Czech President Václav Klaus. Czech Prime Minister Petr Nečas later stated that no opt-out is needed because Czech Republic can't be forced to join the ERM II mechanism and therefore will itself decide when or if to fulfill one of the obligatory criteria to join the Eurozone, which is approach very similar to the one of Sweden. Nečas also stated that his cabinet will not decide upon the joining during its term which is due to expire in 2014, and Czech Republic therefore will not be able to become a member of the Eurozone before 1 January 2017 at the earliest.

Hungary

Main article: Hungary and the euro

Hungary originally hoped to adopt the euro by 1 January 2010. Most financial studies, such as those produced by Standard & Poor's and by Fitch Ratings, suggested that Hungary would be unable to adopt the common European currency on schedule, due to the country's high deficit, which in 2006 exceeded 10% of the GDP. The deficit fell below 5% of GDP in 2007, and was expected to be 3.8% at the end of 2008.

In February 2011, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made clear, that he does not expect the euro to be adopted in Hungary before 1 January 2020. No official target date has been set, but the government has committed itself to comply with all Maastricht criteria in 2018, which would make it possible to adopt the euro on 1 January 2020.

Poland

Main article: Poland and the euro

Poland is bound by the Treaty of Accession 2003 to join the euro at some point, but current indications are that this will not be for several years to come as economic criteria must be met. The złoty is not part of ERM II, itself a requirement for euro membership.

The Finance Minister Dominik Radziwill said on 10 July 2009 that Poland could enter the Eurozone in 2014, meeting the fiscal criteria in 2012. In 2010, the eurozone's debt crisis caused Poles' interest to cool, with nearly half of the population opposed to entry. However in December 2011 Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski said, that Poland aimed to adopt the euro on 1 January 2016, but only if "the eurozone is reformed by then, and the entrance is beneficial to us." Surveys in the first half of 2012 indicated that 60% of Poles were opposed to adopting the common currency.

There is currently no official or binding target date for the Polish euro adoption. It is however currently projected, that Poland will be able to comply with all the Euro adoption criteria by the end of 2015. In that case, the euro adoption can (if applied for), take place on 1 January 2017.

Romania

Main article: Romania and the euro

Romania is scheduled to replace the current national currency, the Romanian leu, with the euro once Romania fulfils the euro convergence criteria. The euro is scheduled to be adopted by Romania on 1 January 2015. According to the Romanian government, it will not be able to join the European Exchange Rate Mechanism before 2013–2014. In April 2012, the Romanian convergens report submitted under the Stability and Growth Pact, confirmed 1 January 2015 still to be the target date for the aspired euro adoption. The target date is however no longer possible to achieve, as it would have required Romania to join ERM2 before October 2012. If Romania decides to join ERM2 before October 2013, the country will now instead be headed to comply with the fifth euro-adaption criteria (the demand for minimum 2-years of ERM2-membership) in 2015; meaning that the earliest possible time for Romania to adopt the euro will be on 1 January 2016. Because for statistical reasons any euro-adoption will only happen on the upcomming 1 January, after the exact point of time where the country has been declared "euro ready" by ECB; and for practical reasons minimum 3 months are also needed after approval for Romania+ECB to prepare for the adoption to take place. So that is why 30 September is the ultimately last deadline for compliance, ahead of any targetted 1 January adoption.

Sweden

Main article: Sweden and the euro

According to the 1994 accession treaty, approved by referendum (52% in favour of the treaty), Sweden is required to join the euro if, at some point, the convergence criteria are fulfilled. However, on 14 September 2003, 56% of Swedes voted against adopting the euro in a second referendum. The Swedish government has argued that staying outside the euro is legal since one of the requirements for eurozone membership is a prior two-year membership of the ERM II; by simply choosing to stay outside the exchange rate mechanism, the Swedish government is provided a formal loophole avoiding the requirement of adopting the euro. Most of Sweden's major parties continue to believe that it would be in the national interest to join, but they have all pledged to abide by the result of the referendum for the time being and show no interest in raising the issue.

The parties seem to agree that Sweden would not adopt the euro until after a second referendum. Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt stated in December 2007 that there will be no referendum until there is stable support in the polls. The polls have generally showed stable support for the "no" alternative, except some polls in 2009 showing a support for "yes". In 2010, 2011 and 2012 the polls showed strong support for "no" again.

Not obliged to join

Denmark

Denmark is not obliged to join but is an ERM II member. Read more about Denmark under the ERM II members headline.

United Kingdom

Main article: United Kingdom and the euro Further information: Five economic tests

The British currency is the pound sterling and the country has an opt-out from eurozone membership. The Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition government elected in 2010 has pledged not to join the euro during its term of office, due to expire in 2015.

The United Kingdom redesigned most of its coinage in 2008. The German newspaper Der Spiegel saw this as an indication that the country has no intention of switching to the euro within the foreseeable future. In December 2008, José Barroso, the President of the European Commission, told French radio that some British politicians were considering the move because of the effects of the global credit crisis; the office of the Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, denied that there was any such change in official policy. In February 2009, Monetary Policy Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia said "The chance that the British pound sterling will join: high."

The Sovereign Base Areas of Akrotiri and Dhekelia introduced the euro at the same time as Cyprus, on 1 January 2008. Previously, they used the Cypriot Pound. They do not have separate euro coins.

Outside the EU

See also: Future enlargement of the European Union

Andorra

See also: Andorran euro coins

Andorra is currently making de facto use of the euro. In 2011 Andorra and the EU signed a monetary agreement. Subject to ratification of the agreement and fulfillment of several additional conditions related to money laundering, terrorist financing and other financial issues, Andorra will be an official Eurozone member and mint its own coins as of 1 July 2013.

Croatia

Croatia is expected to become a member of the EU on 1 July 2013. Croatia would then be obliged to eventually adopt the euro. In 2006, Croatia fulfilled the euro convergence criteria (inflation 2.6%, budget balance −3.0%, public debt 56.2%), however Croatia would still have to spend two years in ERM II after it acceded.

Iceland

Due to instability in the Icelandic króna there has been discussion in Iceland about adopting the euro. However, according to Jürgen Stark, a Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, "Iceland would not be able to adopt the EU currency without first becoming a member of the EU". Iceland has since applied for EU membership.

Iceland has a problem with the euro convergence criteria, from 2008 and on. Inflation 10–15% (2008–2009), budget deficit 24 Bn ISK, 6.9% of GNP, government debt 1400 Bn ISK (estimate end 2009, 400% of GNP). There are hopes for improvements, much lower estimated inflation in 2010, but debt will remain a problem.

New Caledonia, French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna

The French overseas collectivities French Polynesia and Wallis and Futuna have declared themselves in favour of joining the eurozone, replacing the CFP franc with the euro. However, New Caledonia has not yet made any decision, since an independence referendum may be held in 2014 or later, and opinions differ about whether the euro should be used or not in the future. The French government has required that all three entities will have to decide in favour to join. After such a decision, the government would make the application on their behalf at the European Council, and the switch to euro could be made after a couple of years.

Summary of adoption progress

See also: Convergence criteria

The 12 new EU member states, who joined the union in 2004 and 2007 (and eventually also Croatia who joins in 2013), shall adopt the euro as soon as they meet the criteria. For them, the single currency was "part of the package" of European Union membership. Unlike for the UK and Denmark, "opting out" from the third stage of the EMU is not permitted. Currently only 5 of the new members however have managed to adopt the euro:

  • Slovenia (1 January 2007)
  • Cyprus (1 January 2008)
  • Malta (1 January 2008)
  • Slovakia (1 January 2009)
  • Estonia (1 January 2011)

Article 122(2) of the EU Treaty, requires the Commission and the ECB to report to the Council, at least once every two years OR at the request of a Member State with a "euro derogation", on the progress made to comply with the euro adoption criteria and their suitability to join the eurozone. The first report to include the 10 new 2004-members, was published in October 2004. The latest report was published in May 2012, and covered the 8 remaining non-euro member states without an opt-out (Sweden and 7 new EU members in Eastern Europe). Latvia and Lithuania are expected in April 2013, to officially request ECB to conduct an extraordinary assesment of their status, with an expected availability of the report in May 2013. If this report finds, that both states indeed complied with all criteria, they will both adopt the euro on 1 january 2014.

As reported by the table below, the pace for the remaining 7 new EU members to adopt the euro, is expected to be slow. This is partly due to extra fiscal challenges from the turmoil of the Global Financial Crisis. But partly also because the catch-up of economic integration for most of the countries in the Eastern Europe, requires a transition period of several years, before their economies will fully stabilize and comply with all convergence criteria for an adoption of the euro.


State Target
for euro
adaption
ERM II
entry
Co-
ordinating
institution
Changeover
plan
Intro-
duction
Dual
circulation
period
Exchange
till
Dual
price
display
National
mint
Coin
design
Currency
needed
Law Commu-
nication
strategy
 Latvia 2014-01-011 January 2014 2005-05-022 May 2005 The Steering Committee for the preparation and coordination of the euro changeover was established on 18 July 2005 Approved on 6 July 2005 Big-Bang with possible phase out features 2 weeks October 2013 – June 2014 No Approved
3 designs
87 million banknotes and 300 million coins
 Lithuania 2014-nbNot set
(Not before Jan.2014)
2004-06-2828 June 2004 Commission for the Coordination of the Adoption of the euro in Lithuania, created on 30 May 2005 First version approved by the government on 27 September 2005 Big-Bang
60 calendar days before and after €-day Yes Approved
3 designs
118.3 million banknotes, 290 million coins Draft law on the adoption of the euro is prepared Endorsed by the government on 27 September 2005
 Romania 2015-01-011 January 2015
(Not before Jan.2016)
2013Expected in 2013 Inter-institutional working group MoF-NBP 11 months Yes Not yet
decided
 Bulgaria 2016-nbNot set
(Not before Jan.2016)
2013Expected in 2013 Not yet approved 15 days Central bank: indefinitely Yes Approved
1 design
 Denmark 2017-nbA referendum about euro adoption will be held after Sep.2015
(Not before Jan.2017)
1999-01-011 January 1999 Yes
 Czech Republic 2017-nbNot set
(Not before Jan.2017)
2014-nbNot set
(Not before
May 2014)
Approved on 11 April 2007 Big-Bang 5 months before adoption
12 months after adoption
Yes Competition
under
consideration
230 million banknotes and 950 million coins
 Poland 2017-nbNot set
(Not before Jan.2017)
3Not set Big-Bang Yes Public survey
under consideration
 Hungary 2020-nbNot set
(Not before Jan.2020)
3Not set Preparatory work is ongoing in the Ministry of Finance and Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary) Big-Bang with possible phase out features
1 month Yes Not yet
decided
 Sweden 4Not under consideration 4Not under consideration
 United Kingdom 4Not under consideration 4Not under consideration

Eruption of the financial crisis in September 2008, caused a delay in the schedule to adopt the euro, for most of the new EU members. The convergence progress for the newly accessed EU member states, is supported and evaluated by the yearly submission of the "Convergence programme" under the Stability and Growth Pact. As a general rule, the majority of economic experts recommend for newly accessed EU member states with a forecasted era of catching-up and a past record of "macro-economic imbalance" or "financial instability", that these countries first use some years to address these issues and ensure "stable convergence", before taking the next step to join the ERM-II, and as the final step (when complying with all convergence criteria) ultimately adopt the euro. In practical terms, any non-euro EU member state can become an ERM-II member whenever they want, as this mechanism does not define any criteria to comply with. Economists however consider it to be more desirable for "unstable countries", to maintain their flexibility of having a floating currency, rather than getting an inflexible and partly fixed currency as an ERM-II member. Only at the time of being considered fully "stable", the member states will be encouraged to enter into ERM-II, and then ultimately recommended to apply for the euro membership minimum two years later.

See also

Notes and references

Notes

  1. The Bulgarian National Bank pursues its primary objective of price stability through an exchange rate anchor in the context of a Currency Board Arrangement (CBA), obliging them to exchange monetary liabilities and euro at the official exchange rate 1.95583 BGN/EUR without any limit. The CBA was introduced on 1 July 1997 as a 1:1 peg against German mark, and the peg subsequently changed to euro on 1 January 1999.
  2. Sweden, while obliged to adopt the euro under its Treaty of Accession, has chosen to deliberately fail to meet the convergence criteria for euro adoption by not joining ERM II without prior approval by a referendum.

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