| Revision as of 03:40, 2 February 2009 editEnuja (talk | contribs)2,475 edits the IPCC part is clear in the references← Previous edit | Latest revision as of 17:45, 4 February 2009 edit undoEnuja (talk | contribs)2,475 edits blanked page to prevent idea of "current" sandbox version: feel free to revert to any prior version, or copy and paste current global warming lead, to play with editing it | ||
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| {{dablink|For past ], see ] and ].}} | |||
| <!-- Please keep the intro as a simple declarative sentence. Details should be placed later. --> | |||
| {{Double image stack|right|Instrumental Temperature Record.png|Global Warming Map.jpg|280|Global mean surface temperature anomaly relative to 1961–1990|Mean surface temperature anomalies during the period 1995 to 2004 with respect to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980}} | |||
| '''Global warming''' is the increase in the ] of the ]'s near-surface air and ]s since the mid-20th century and its projected continuation.{{fact|}} | |||
| The Earth's global surface temperature is determined by the amount of incoming ] absorbed by the Earth and the retention of that heat by ]es.<ref name="grida7"/> This ]'s average ] has increased 0.74 ] 0.18 °] (1.33 ± 0.32 °]) during the 100 years ending in 2005.<ref name="grida7"/><ref name="Global">Global surface temperature is defined in the ] as the average of near-surface air temperature over land and sea surface temperature.</ref> The ] (IPCC) concludes that most of the temperature increase since the mid-twentieth century is "very likely" ] the increase in ] ] concentrations,<ref name="grida7">{{cite web | url= http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/Report/AR4WG1_Print_SPM.pdf | format=] | title=Summary for Policymakers | work=Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | accessdate=2007-02-02 | date=] | publisher=]|quote=}}</ref><ref name="Global"/> and this attribution of recent global warming has been endorsed by at least 30 ].<ref>The 2001 joint statement was signed by the scientific academies of ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], ], and the ]. The 2005 statement added ], ], and the ] The 2007 statement added ] and ]. Professional societies include American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, American Institute of Physics, American Astronomical Society, American Association for the Advancement of Science, Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London, Geological Society of America, American Chemical Society, and Engineers Australia.</ref> While a ] have voiced disagreement with these findings,<ref> | |||
| {{cite web | title = Don't fight, adapt | publisher = ] | url = http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=164002 | accessdate = 2007-11-18 |month=December | year=2007}} | |||
| </ref> the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agreed with the IPCC's main conclusions.<ref>{{cite web | title = A guide to facts and fictions about climate change | publisher = ] | url = http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/downloaddoc.asp?id=1630 | accessdate = 2007-11-18 | month = March | year = 2005 | quote = "However, the overwhelming majority of scientists who work on climate change agreed on the main points"}}</ref><ref>{{cite web | title = Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change | publisher = '']'' | url = http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/306/5702/1686 | accessdate = 2008-01-04 |month=December | year=2004}}</ref> | |||
| ] projections indicate that global surface temperature will likely rise a further {{nowrap|1.1 to 6.4 °C}} {{nowrap|(2.0 to 11.5 °F)}} during the twenty-first century.<ref name="grida7" /> The disagreement between these estimate arises from use of differing ] and from use of models with differing ]. Many climate models omit ] effects which may significantly increase the rate and magnitude of global warming (notably ]).<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1029/2003GL018680|title=Thawing sub-arctic permafrost: Effects on vegetation and methane emissions|year=2004|author=Christensen, Torben R.|journal=Geophysical Research Letters|volume=31|pages=L04501}}</ref> This omission of positive feedback effects is a potential reason why ] has happened far faster than the ]'s predictions.<ref>http://www.nsidc.org/news/press/20081002_seaice_pressrelease.html</ref><ref>http://www.ees.hokudai.ac.jp/coe21/dc2008/DC/report/Maslowski.pdf</ref> | |||
| Although most studies focus on the period up to 2100, changes due to warming are expected to continue for more than a thousand years,<ref name="Archer2007">{{cite journal|url=http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2007.hydrate_rev.pdf|format=PDF|title=Methane hydrate stability and anthropogenic climate change|last=Archer|first=D.|journal=Biogeosciences|volume=4|issue=4|year=2007|pages=521–544}}</ref><ref name="carbon_lifetime1">{{Citation | url=http://geosci.uchicago.edu/~archer/reprints/archer.2005.fate_co2.pdf |format=PDF| first = David | last = Archer | title = Fate of fossil fuel {{chem|CO|2}} in geologic time | journal = ] | volume = 110 | issue=C9 | pages=C09S05.1–C09S05.6 | year = 2005 | doi=10.1029/2004JC002625 | accessdate=2007-07-27}}</ref><ref name="carbon_lifetime2">{{Citation | first1=Ken | last1=Caldeira | first2=Michael E. | last2= Wickett | url=http://www.ipsl.jussieu.fr/~jomce/acidification/paper/Caldeira_Wickett_2005_JGR.pdf |format=PDF| title = Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean | journal = ] | volume = 110 | issue=C9 | pages=C09S04.1–C09S04.12| year = 2005 | doi=10.1029/2004JC002671 | accessdate=2007-07-27}}</ref> even if greenhouse gas levels are stabilized.<ref>{{cite journal|doi=10.1073/pnas.0812721106|title=Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions|year=2009|author=Solomon, S.|journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}} </ref> | |||
| Increasing global temperature will cause ] and will change the amount and pattern of ], likely including an expanse of the subtropical desert regions.<ref> | |||
| {{cite journal | |||
| | last = Lu | |||
| | first = Jian | |||
| | xauthorlink = Jian Lu | |||
| | coauthors = Gabriel A. Vecchi, Thomas Reichler | |||
| | title = Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming | |||
| | journal = ] | |||
| | volume = 34 | |||
| | date = 2007 | |||
| | url = http://www.atmos.berkeley.edu/~jchiang/Class/Spr07/Geog257/Week10/Lu_Hadley06.pdf | |||
| | doi = 10.1029/2006GL028443 | |||
| | accessdate = 12/06/2008 | |||
| | pages = L06805}} | |||
| </ref> Other likely effects include continuing ] and accelerating ], increases in the intensity of ] events, changes in ]s, modifications of trade routes, ], species ] and changes in the ranges of ].{{fact|should have a citation for the lump of effects - is this all in the IPCC report? (I've never read it.) ] (]) 22:19, 30 January 2009 (UTC)}} There is still much uncertainty about the specific effects of global warming on local regions. Some scientists have speculated that global warming may lead to very severe disruption to the atmosphere and oceans. Such suggested effects include global ]<ref>http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/04/070403143622.htm</ref><ref>http://assets.panda.org/downloads/amazon_cc_impacts_lit_review_final_2.pdf</ref>, an ]<ref name="Gronstal 2008">{{cite web | |||
| | last = Gronstal | |||
| | first = A. L. | |||
| | title = Gasping for Breath in the Jurassic Era | |||
| | work = http://www.space.com | |||
| | publisher = ] | |||
| | date = 2008-04-24 | |||
| | url = http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/080424-am-jurassic-warming.html | |||
| | accessdate = 2008-04-24}} | |||
| </ref><ref name="Cohen 2008"> | |||
| {{cite journal | |||
| | last = Pearce | |||
| | first = C. R. | |||
| | coauthors = Cohen, A. S.; Coe, A. L.; Burton, K. W. | |||
| | title = Molybdenum isotope evidence for global ocean anoxia coupled with perturbations to the carbon cycle during the Early Jurassic | |||
| | journal = Geology | |||
| | volume = 36 | |||
| | issue = 3 | |||
| | pages = 231–234 | |||
| | publisher = ] | |||
| | month = March | year = 2008 | |||
| | url = http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/cgi/content/abstract/36/3/231 | |||
| | doi = 10.1130/G24446A.1 | |||
| | accessdate = 2008-04-24}}</ref> or ]<ref>http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/james-lovelock-the-earth-is-about-to-catch-a-morbid-fever-that-may-last-as-long-as-100000-years-523161.html</ref><ref>Global Warning: The Last Chance for Change, Paul Brown, published by the Guardian and A&C Black</ref>.<!-- These effects are important, but need quality citations to prove they are credible. Please don't remove them on the grounds that citations have not yet been found.~~~~ --> | |||
| ] and ] continues regarding what, if any, responses to global warming are made. The available options are: ] to reduce further emissions; ] to reduce the damage caused by warming; and ] to reverse global warming. ] have signed and ratified the ] aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions<ref name = "Kyoto-PDF-unfccc">{{cite web | title=Kyoto Protocol: Status of Ratification | url=http://unfccc.int/files/kyoto_protocol/status_of_ratification/application/pdf/kp_ratification.pdf | date=2008-10-16 | accessdate=2008-07-01 | publisher=] |format=PDF}}</ref>, though a new deal on Global climate will be needed when Kyoto expires in 2012. | |||
| <references/> | |||