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| style="text-align:left;" |]<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/no-frontrunner-in-swing-states-before-democratic-convention|title=No Frontrunner in Swing States Before Democratic Convention|first=Jonathan|last=Draeger|date=August 18, 2024|website=RealClearPolling}}</ref>{{efn-ua|name=NUSA|Poll sponsored by ]}} | style="text-align:left;" |]<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.realclearpolling.com/stories/analysis/no-frontrunner-in-swing-states-before-democratic-convention|title=No Frontrunner in Swing States Before Democratic Convention|first=Jonathan|last=Draeger|date=August 18, 2024|website=RealClearPolling}}</ref>{{efn-ua|name=NUSA|Poll sponsored by ]}}

Revision as of 07:02, 2 September 2024

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



Elections in Arizona
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. Arizona is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee. However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris (from neighboring California), who launched her presidential campaign the same day.

The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump. This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean. Formerly a moderately red state in the American Southwest, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a major drop in margin of Republican victory in the traditional GOP stronghold compared to previous cycles, despite an overall more favorable year for Republicans than the previous two presidential elections. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. The state is now considered a purple state.

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot. Kennedy’s petition has been withdrawn, and he will not be on the ballot in Arizona.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report Tossup August 27, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball Tossup August 20, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill Tossup August 26, 2024
CNN Tossup August 27, 2024
The Economist Tossup August 27, 2024
538 Tossup August 27, 2024
RCP Tossup August 27, 2024
CNalysis Tossup August 27, 2024
Inside Elections Tossup May 8, 2024

Election rule changes

Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered. In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship.

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Undecided
 Margin
RealClearPolitics July 22 – August 30, 2024 August 30, 2024 47.4% 47.9% 4.7% Trump +0.5%
270ToWin through August 29, 2024 August 29, 2024 46.4% 47.6% 6.0% Trump +1.2%
RacetotheWH through August 28, 2024 August 28, 2024 47.5% 47.6% 4.9% Trump +0.1%
The Hill/DDHQ through August 29, 2024 August 29, 2024 47.9% 47.7% 4.4% Harris +0.2%
Silver Bulletin through August 29, 2024 August 29, 2024 47.5% 47.0% 5.5% Harris +0.5%
538 through August 29, 2024 August 29, 2024 45.4% 45.3% 9.3% Harris +0.1%
Average 46.65% 46.5% 6.85% Harris +0.15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College August 25–28, 2024 720 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 50% 7%
720 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 51% 1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult August 23–26, 2024 776 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 48% 4%
758 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
Fox News August 23–26, 2024 1,014 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% 1%
Stats&Data August 15-25 1000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% 2%
Rasmussen Reports (R) August 13–17, 2024 1,187 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 47% 8%
Noble Predictive Insights August 12–16, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
Focaldata August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 51% –
New York Times/Siena College August 8–15, 2024 677 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% 7%
677 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 45% 5%
Trafalgar Group (R) August 6–8, 2024 1,092 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 48% 5%
Navigator Research (D) July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) July 26 – August 8, 2024 435 (LV) – 48% 46% 6%
HighGround July 30 – August 5, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 44% 42% 14%
Public Policy Polling (D) July 29–30, 2024 618 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 49% 4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) July 23–29, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 43% 48% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult July 24–28, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 4%
Emerson College July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 49% 7%
800 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 53% –
July 21, 2024 Harris declares her candidacy.
InsiderAdvantage (R) July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 48% 10%
Public Policy Polling (D) July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 44% 52% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult May 7–13, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 51% 7%
Emerson College February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 48% 12%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 9%
603 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 9%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News August 23–26, 2024 1,014 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 1% 1% 2% 1%


Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Kennedy suspends his campaign.
Rasmussen Reports (R) August 13–17, 2024 1,187 (LV) – 44% 45% 7% 1% 0% – 3%
Focaldata August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 46% 7% – 0% 0% 2%
702 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 45% 9% – 0% 0% 1%
702 (A) ± 3.7% 42% 46% 9% – 0% 0% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies August 12–15, 2024 592 (LV) – 43% 44% 5% – 1% 1% 6%
New York Times/Siena College August 8–15, 2024 677 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 42% 6% 0% 1% 2% 4%
677 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 43% 5% 0% 0% 1% 4%
Navigator Research (D) July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 5% 0% 0% 0% 4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) July 26 – August 8, 2024 435 (LV) – 46% 42% 7% 1% 0% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 31 – August 3, 2024 567 (LV) – 44% 43% 4% – 0% 0% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult July 24–28, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 5% – 0% 2% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies July 22–24, 2024 510 (LV) – 43% 46% 4% – 0% 1% 6%
Emerson College July 22–23, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 40% 48% 5% 1% 1% 1% 4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Kennedy suspends his campaign.
Public Policy Polling (D) July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 46% 7% 1% 6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
August 23, 2024 Kennedy suspends his campaign.
Peak Insights (R) July 31 – August 5, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 44% 11% 3%
Iron Light Intelligence (R) July 29 – August 5, 2024 600 (LV) – 43% 43% 7% 7%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D) July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 44% 50% 6%
InsiderAdvantage (R) July 15–16, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 44% 49% 7%
Emerson College July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 47% 13%
Rasmussen Reports (R) July 5–12, 2024 1,101 (LV) ± 3.0% 41% 50% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D) July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 43% 51% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult July 1–5, 2024 781 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 48% 7%
Emerson College June 30 – July 2, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
Remington Research Group (R) June 29 – July 1, 2024 638 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%
North Star Opinion Research (R) June 17–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 48% 10%
Emerson College June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 47% 10%
1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 52% –
Rasmussen Reports (R) June 11–13, 2024 750 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 47% 13%
Fox News June 1–4, 2024 1,095 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 51% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) May 28 – June 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 50% 6%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University May 19–21, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 18%
501 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 43% 12%
CBS News/YouGov May 10–16, 2024 1,214 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 52% 1%
Prime Group May 9–16, 2024 490 (RV) – 49% 51% –
Noble Predictive Insights May 7–14, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 41% 44% 15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult May 7–13, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 49% 7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) May 6–13, 2024 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 45% 11%
New York Times/Siena College April 28 – May 9, 2024 626 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 49% 9%
626 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 49% 8%
Emerson College April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% 8%
1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 52% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult April 8–15, 2024 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 49% 9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) April 7–11, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 48% 8%
The Bullfinch Group March 29 – April 3, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 44% 18%
RABA Research March 28–31, 2024 503 (RV) ± 4.4% 36% 39% 25%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 47% 11%
Echelon Insights March 12–19, 2024 401 (LV) ± 5.7% 45% 51% 4%
North Star Opinion Research (R) March 14–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 48% 8%
1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 52% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–14, 2024 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 48% 9%
Fox News March 7–11, 2024 1,121 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 49% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (R) February 21–26, 2024 1,001 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 47% 13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 49% 8%
Emerson College February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
J.L. Partners January 29 – February 1, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 45% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 44% 47% 9%
The Bullfinch Group December 14–18, 2023 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 40% 50% 10%
VCreek/AMG (R) December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 41% 46% 13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
J.L. Partners November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 48% 9%
Tulchin Research (D) November 13–20, 2023 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 42% 42% 16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College October 30 – November 4, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 43% 16%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% 7%
Noble Predictive Insights October 25–31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 38% 46% 16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 5–10, 2023 804 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 47% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023 627 (RV) – 39% 44% 16%
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 45% 13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) July 22–24, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% 8%
Prime Group June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 48% 52% –
500 (RV) – 31% 41% 28%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) June 17–19, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 41% 11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 46% 44% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 11–13, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 44% 11%
Rasmussen Reports (R) March 13–14, 2023 1,001 (LV) ± 3.0% 39% 50% 11%
OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 39% 37% 24%
Blueprint Polling (D) January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 35% 38% 27%
Rasmussen Reports (R) November 8–9, 2022 874 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 45% 8%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022 560 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 53% 2%
Emerson College October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College September 6–7, 2022 627 (LV) ± 3.9% 41% 44% 15%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 773 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 47% 10%
Blueprint Polling (D) May 12–16, 2022 608 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 41% 18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) November 11–16, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 51% 6%
Bendixen/Amandi International June 17–23, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 44% 5%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D) July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 40% 45% 7% – 2% 6%
Emerson College July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 46% 6% 1% 1% 10%
J.L. Partners July 10–11, 2024 513 (LV) ± 4.3% 40% 46% 4% – 2% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (R) July 5–12, 2024 1,101 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 46% 9% 1% 1% 6%
YouGov July 4–12, 2024 900 (RV) ± 3.9% 37% 44% 5% 1% 2% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult July 1–5, 2024 781 (RV) ± 4.0% 38% 45% 9% 1% 0% 7%
North Star Opinion Research (R) June 17–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 32% 42% 13% – 3% 10%
Emerson College June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 43% 8% 1% 1% 8%
Rasmussen Reports (R) June 11–13, 2024 750 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 41% 10% 2% 1% 9%
Fox News June 1–4, 2024 1,095 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 46% 8% 1% 1% 3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) May 28 – June 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 45% 11% 0% 3% 4%
Prime Group May 9–16, 2024 490 (RV) – 40% 44% 11% 3% 2% –
Noble Predictive Insights May 7–14, 2024 1,003 (RV) ± 3.1% 36% 43% 8% 1% 2% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult May 7–13, 2024 795 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 45% 7% 1% 2% 5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) May 6–13, 2024 527 (LV) ± 4.3% 37% 41% 10% 2% 1% 9%
New York Times/Siena College April 28 – May 9, 2024 626 (RV) ± 4.0% 33% 42% 10% 0% 2% 13%
626 (LV) ± 4.0% 35% 44% 8% 0% 2% 11%
Emerson College April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% 9% 1% 1% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult April 8–15, 2024 801 (RV) ± 3.0% 40% 46% 7% 2% 0% 5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) April 7–11, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 37% 42% 10% – 2% 9%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 34% 39% 13% 2% 1% 11%
Emerson College March 12–15, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 38% 46% 7% 1% 2% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–14, 2024 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 12% 2% 1% 5%
Fox News March 7–11, 2024 1,121 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 43% 10% 1% 2% 5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024 798 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 45% 9% 1% 1% 8%
Emerson College February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 43% 8% 1% 1% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 35% 43% 10% 1% 1% 10%
VCreek/AMG (R) December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 32% 40% 9% 3% 2% 14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023 796 (RV) ± 3.0% 37% 40% 10% 1% 1% 11%
J.L. Partners November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.2% 39% 44% 5% 1% 0% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Biden withdraws from the race.
1983 Labs June 28–30, 2024 492 (LV) ± 4.4% 33% 48% 8% 11%
P2 Insights June 11–20, 2024 650 (LV) ± 3.8% 36% 47% 7% 10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University May 19–21, 2024 609 (RV) ± 4.0% 37% 39% 9% 15%
501 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 43% 7% 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 2–4, 2024 625 (LV) – 42% 44% 7% 7%
Data Orbital April 27–29, 2024 550 (LV) ± 4.3% 38.8% 38.1% 13.5% 9.6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies March 14–17, 2024 516 (LV) – 41% 44% 7% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies December 28–30, 2023 808 (LV) – 35% 41% 10% 14%
VCreek/AMG (R) December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 35% 40% 16% 9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023 1,103 (LV) – 33% 40% 10% 17%
New York Times/Siena College October 22– November 3, 2023 603 (LV) ± 4.4% 33% 33% 26% 8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023 627 (LV) – 37% 42% 8% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Biden withdraws from the race.
North Star Opinion Research March 14–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 33% 37% 18% 2% 10%
J.L. Partners November 27 – December 1, 2023 550 (LV) ± 4.4% 34% 39% 4% 1% 22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023 800 (RV) ± 3.0% 36% 40% 11% 1% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Green 		Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024 Biden withdraws from the race.
Emerson College August 2–4, 2023 1,337 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 42% 4% 13%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023 1,103 (LV) – 33% 25% 19% 23%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 44% 51% 5%
Emerson College February 16–19, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 34% 47% 19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 45% 49% 6%

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		JB
Pritzker
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 41% 47% 12%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 43% 46% 11%

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Pete
Buttigieg
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) July 10–11, 2024 596 (RV) – 46% 49% 5%

Mark Kelly vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Mark
Kelly
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) July 17–20, 2024 738 (RV) ± 3.6% 43% 45% 6% 1% 5%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R) December 1–8, 2023 694 (RV) – 30% 37% 33%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 37% 46% 17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023 1,103 (LV) – 34% 27% 17% 22%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023 603 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 46% 12%
Noble Predictive Insights October 25 – 31, 2023 1,010 (RV) ± 3.1% 37% 40% 23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) July 22–24, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 39% 46% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) June 17–19, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 46% 12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 43% 47% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 11–13, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 48% 10%
OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.1% 35% 36% 29%
Blueprint Polling (D) January 5–8, 2023 618 (V) ± 3.9% 37% 43% 20%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 773 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 43% 14%

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 15–17, 2023 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 45% 43% 12%

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Democratic primary, March 19, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 375,110 89.3% 72 72
Marianne Williamson 15,844 3.8%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 11,611 2.8%
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn) 6,128 1.5%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn) 4,976 1.2%
Jason Palmer 3,752 0.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn) 2,753 0.7%
Total: 420,174 100.0% 72 13 85


Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary

The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Republican primary, March 19, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 492,299 78.84% 43 43
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 110,966 17.77%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 10,131 1.62%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 5,078 0.81%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 2,479 0.40%
David Stuckenberg 1,367 0.22%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 891 0.14%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 714 0.11%
John Anthony Castro 505 0.08%
Total: 624,430 100.00% 43 43

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine".

See also

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. "Someone else" with 1%
  5. "Some other candidate" with 5%
  6. Independent/Third party candidate with 13%
  7. "Someone else" with 15%
  8. No Labels candidate
  9. Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  10. Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  11. Lars Mapstead (L) with 3%
  12. Joe Manchin with 4%
  13. "Someone else" with 12%
  14. Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
  15. Jill Stein (G) with 2%
  16. "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%
  17. "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  2. ^ Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
  3. Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
  4. ^ Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  5. Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
  9. ^ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  10. Poll commissioned by AARP
  11. ^ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  12. ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  13. Poll sponsored by Independent Center
  14. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
  16. ^ Poll conducted for The Daily Mail
  17. Poll sponsored by Stand for Children Arizona
  18. ^ Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
  19. Poll sponsored by College Republicans United
  20. Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  21. Poll commissioned by AARP
  22. Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates

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