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{{Multiple issues|
{{original research|date=October 2014}}
{{Original research|date=August 2014}}
The '''Arab Winter'''<ref name=telegraph>{{cite web|url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/9753123/Middle-East-review-of-2012-the-Arab-Winter.html|title=Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter - Telegraph|publisher=telegraph.co.uk|accessdate=2014-07-19}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348|title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad|publisher=Telegraph.co.uk|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2014/April/Expert-Warns-of-Americas-Coming-Arab-Winter/|title=Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'|publisher=Cbn.com|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-arab-winter|title=The Arab Winter|work=The New Yorker|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.spu.edu/about-spu/news/articles/2014/may/arab-spring|title=Arab Spring or Arab Winter?|publisher=Newyorker.com|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref> or Islamist Winter,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/12/the-arab-spring-descends-into-islamist-winter-implications-for-us-policy|title=Arab Spring into Islamist Winter: Implications for U.S. Policy|work=The Heritage Foundation|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.smh.com.au/comment/arab-spring-yields-to-muslim-winter-20140105-30bqz.html|title=Arab spring yields to Muslim winter|author=Paul Sheehan|work=The Sydney Morning Herald|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref> is a term for the wide-scale violence and instability, evolving in the aftermath of the ] protests in ] countries. The Arab Winter is referring to the increasingly violent developments across the Arab world,<ref name=telegraph/> including the ], its merging with the ] into a single regional war, the ], ] and other events.{{cd|date=October 2014}}
{{Refimprove|date=August 2014}}}}
The '''Arab Winter'''<ref name=telegraph>{{cite web|url=http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/9753123/Middle-East-review-of-2012-the-Arab-Winter.html|title=Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter - Telegraph|publisher=telegraph.co.uk|accessdate=2014-07-19}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Analysis-Arab-Winter-is-coming-to-Baghdad-359348|title=Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad|publisher=Telegraph.co.uk|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2014/April/Expert-Warns-of-Americas-Coming-Arab-Winter/|title=Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'|publisher=Cbn.com|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-arab-winter|title=The Arab Winter|work=The New Yorker|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.spu.edu/about-spu/news/articles/2014/may/arab-spring|title=Arab Spring or Arab Winter?|publisher=Newyorker.com|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref> or Islamist Winter,<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/12/the-arab-spring-descends-into-islamist-winter-implications-for-us-policy|title=Arab Spring into Islamist Winter: Implications for U.S. Policy|work=The Heritage Foundation|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.smh.com.au/comment/arab-spring-yields-to-muslim-winter-20140105-30bqz.html|title=Arab spring yields to Muslim winter|author=Paul Sheehan|work=The Sydney Morning Herald|accessdate=8 October 2014}}</ref> is a term for the wide-scale violence and instability, evolving in the aftermath of the ] protests in ] countries. The Arab Winter is referring to the increasingly violent developments across the Arab World,<ref name=telegraph/> including the ], its merging with the ] into a single regional war, the ], ] and other events, linked with the Arab Winter (or Islamist Winter). For instance, weapons and ] fighters returning from the ] stoked a simmering ] which has been described as "fallout" from the Arab Spring in ].<ref name="Mali coup: Arab Spring spreads to Africa">{{cite news|url=http://www.upi.com/Top_News/Special/2012/03/26/Mali-coup-Arab-Spring-spreads-to-Africa/UPI-33131332791728/?spt=hs&or=tn|agency=United Press International|title=Mali coup: Arab Spring spreads to Africa|agency=26 March 2012|accessdate=31 March 2012}}</ref> The ] were described as a spillover of violence from the Syrian Civil War.<ref name="Syria-related clashes rage in Lebanon, leaving 13 dead">{{cite news|url=http://articles.cnn.com/2012-06-03/middleeast/world_meast_lebanon-syria-violence_1_syrian-refugees-prime-minister-najib-mikati-alawites|publisher=CNN|title=Syria-related clashes rage in Lebanon, leaving 13 dead|date=3 June 2012|accessdate=13 August 2012}}</ref>

The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional civil wars, deteriorating regional instability, economic and demographic decline of the Arab League and ethno-religious strife between Sunni-Arab, Shia-Arab, Kurdish and other Middle Eastern groups. As of summer 2014, the Arab Winter has produced about a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.

==ISIS and the Levant conflict==
{{further|Timeline of the Iraqi insurgency (2014)}}
In December 2013, a militant group calling itself the ] (ISIL or ISIS), which had been a major participant in the ] and held a large swath of that country, began an offensive against the Shia led Iraqi government. they took Mosul in January 2014 and the following June, started a ]-like offensive that took over much of the country and merged the two conflicts into a single regional war. In August ISIS' allies in the West of Syria began a number of attempts to invade Lebanon.

The United States, at the invitation of Iraq, has begun a series of airstrikes against ISIS, and several countries have offered to give military aid to Lebanon. Iran, Russia, the West, and the Arab Legue have pledged aid to country's incapable military. In the Golan Hsghts, the Israeli army has been accidentally attacked.
{|class="wikitable sortable"
!Theaters of war
|-
! scope="col"| Country
! scope="col"| Date started
! scope="col"| Status
! scope="col" class="unsortable"| Outcome
! scope="col"| Death toll
! scope="col"| Situation
|-
|{{flag|Iraq}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|12|18}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Spillover violence from the ] leading to an ISIS invasion.
*] (ISIS) ] ] and ] among other cities in June 2014 and declares a new caliphate.
*Ethnic cleansing and ],] and mass executions of ] by ISIS.
*] on ].
|{{ntsh|16027}} 16,027+
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|]
|-
|{{flag|Lebanon}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|6|17}}
|Ongoing violence
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Spillover violence from the ] between forces that support the Syrian government and others that oppose it.
*Full scale battles around the Bekka Valley and the town of Arsal.
*Chaos in the government, including a prolonged presidential interregnum and the cancellation of Parliamentary elections.<ref name="Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift">{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-lebanon-parliament-election-idUSBRE94U19N20130531|title=Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift|publisher=Reuters|date=31 May 2013|accessdate=20 September 2014}}</ref>
|{{ntsh|457}} 457–474
! style="color:#fff; background:#004a80;"|]
|-
|{{flag|Syria}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|3|15|}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Large defections from the Syrian army and clashes between soldiers and defectors<ref name="Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'">{{cite news|url=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011428182333234775.html|title=Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'|publisher=Al Jazeera|date=28 April 2011|accessdate=28 April 2011}}</ref>
*Formation of the ]
*The Free Syrian Army takes controls of large swathes of land across Syria.
*Battles between the Syrian government's army and the ] in many governorates.
*Formation of the ]<ref name="Syrian dissidents form national council">{{cite news|url=http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/23/2372099/syrian-dissidents-form-national.html|title=Syrian dissidents form national council|first=Ipek|last=Yezdani|work=The Miami Herald|date=23 August 2011|accessdate=24 August 2011}}{{Dead link|date=May 2014}}</ref>
*Syria suspended from the ]
*Several countries recognize ] ]
*Kurdish fighters enter the war by mid-2013
|{{ntsh|160000}} 191,000+<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2014/0822/UN-reports-Syria-conflict-death-toll-reaches-191-000-video | agency=Christian Science Monitor | title=Syria war death toll tops 191,000 | date=22 August 2014}}</ref>
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|]
|-
|}

==North Africa==
{|class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size: 95%"
|-
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Country
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Date started
! scope="col" style="width:16%;"| Status
! scope="col" style="width:40%;" class="unsortable"| Outcome
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Death toll
! scope="col" style="width:14%;"| Situation
|-
|{{flag|Egypt}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2012|11|22}}
|Government overthrown in July 2013. Ongoing unrest.
|<nowiki></nowiki>
'''Protests over the imposition of an Islamist-backed constitution by the ] and ] lead to a ].'''
*] held to replace Mubarak as the new president of Egypt; ] elected and inaugurated<ref name="Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president">{{cite news|url=http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57464345/mohammed-morsi-sworn-in-as-egypts-president/ |title=Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president |publisher=CBS News |date=30 June 2012 |accessdate=2012-09-28}}</ref>
*Morsi removed by military in a ] following a ] that came after months of ].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/03/mohamed-morsi-egypt-second-revolution|title=Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two years|date=4 July 2013|publisher=The Guardian}}</ref>
*Crackdown on the ] and other Islamists:
**Senior Islamist figures have been arrested and face trial.{{#tag:ref|See <ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/76158/Egypt/Politics-/Prosecution-orders-arrest-of-leading-Brotherhood-m.aspx|title=Prosecution orders arrest of leading Brotherhood members|date=10 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75721/Egypt/Politics-/Former-Brotherhood-supreme-guide-Akef-arrested-.aspx|title=Former Brotherhood supreme guide Akef arrested|date=4 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75815/Egypt/Politics-/Muslim-Brotherhoods-secondman-ElShater-arrested-Se.aspx|title=Muslim Brotherhood's second-man El-Shater arrested: Security official|date=6 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/21/egypt-arrests-2-more-islamist-figures-hard-line-cleric-spokesman-for-muslim/|title=Egypt arrests 2 more Islamist figures: hard-line cleric, a spokesman for Muslim Brotherhood|date=21 August 2013|publisher=Fox News}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/egypt-police-arrest-muslim-brotherhood-chiefs-mohammed-elbeltagy-and-khaled-alazhari-8790828.html|title=Egypt: Police arrest Muslim Brotherhood chiefs Mohammed el-Beltagy and Khaled Al-Azhari|date=30 August 2013|publisher=The Independent|location=London}}</ref>}}
**] of pro-Morsi sit-ins on August 14, 2013.
**A court bans all Muslim Brotherhood activities nationwide and its assets are confiscated.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/23/us-egypt-brotherhood-idUSBRE98M0QR20130923|title=Egyptian court bans Muslim Brotherhood|date=23 September 2013|publisher=Reuters}}</ref> The government eventually designates the group as a ] on December 25, 2013.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/90037.aspx|title=Egypt government declares Muslim Brotherhood 'terrorist group'|date=26 December 2013|publisher=Al-Ahram}}</ref>
**Sentencing to death of hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26712124|title=Egypt court sentences 528 Morsi supporters to death|date=March 24, 2014|publisher=BBC}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/28/world/africa/egypt-politics/|title=Egypt court sentences hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters to death|date=April 29, 2014|publisher=CNN}}</ref>
**] in response to the coup.
*] becomes president following a ].
;]:
*] launch anti-terror military operations in the Sinai due to increased attacks by insurgents since the ouster of Morsi.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75792/Egypt/Politics-/Clashes-in-Sinai-over-Morsi-removal.aspx|title=Clashes in Sinai over Morsi removal|publisher=Ahram Online|date=5 July 2013|accessdate=5 July 2013}}</ref>
|{{ntsh|3500}} 3,500+{{#tag:ref|See <ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/06/02/anhri-releases-names-of-dead/|title=ANHRI releases names of dead|date=June 2, 2013|publisher=Daily News Egypt}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-21289729|title=Egypt protesters clash with police at presidential palace|date=February 1, 2013|publisher=BBC}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/08/egypt-dead-injured-toll-so-far|title=Egypt's dead and injured: the toll so far|date=July 8, 2013|publisher=The Guardian}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/24/egypt-s-unprecedented-instability-by-numbers/h5j3|title=Egypt’s Unprecedented Instability by the Numbers|date=March 24, 2014|publisher=Carnegie Endowment for International Peace}}</ref>}}
! style="color:#fff; background:#00112b;"|]
|-
||{{flag|Libya}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|8|23}}
|Ongoing civil disturbance
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*]<ref name="Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead">{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/12/us-libya-clashes-idUSTRE7AB0HU20111112|title=Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead|agency=Reuters|date=12 November 2011}}</ref>
*] to a ] on 7 July 2012.
*In May 2014, General ] launched ] codenamed ''Operation Dignity'' on Islamist militia groups.
*Conflict intensifies in July 2014 and is driven out of Benghazi by ] militants who declare the region an "Islamic emirate".<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/31/world/middleeast/libya-benghazi-march-protests-militias.html?_r=1 | title=Libya: Benghazi March Protests Militias | publisher=The New York Times | date=30 July 2014 | accessdate=16 August 2014 | author=Fahim, Kareem}}</ref>
|
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|]
|-
|{{flag|Tunisia}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|10|23}}
|New constitution enacted
|<nowiki></nowiki>
''']-led government resigns; ] becomes the new prime minister.'''
*Elections to a ] on 23 October 2011<ref name="Tunisia election delayed until 23 October">{{cite news |url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/us-tunisia-election-idUSTRE7571R020110608 |title=Tunisia election delayed until 23 October |agency=Reuters |date=8 June 2011 |accessdate=8 June 2011}}</ref>
*] against the interim Islamist-led government.
*Prime Minister ] resigns and replaced by a technocratic government formed by ], a former minister in ].
*New constitution ].
|
! style="color:#fff; background:#00112b;"|]
|-
|}


==See also== ==See also==
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*]
*]
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{{div col end}} {{div col end}}
{{Portal bar|Middle East|Africa|Politics|Social movements|2010s|Syrian Civil War}} {{Portal bar|Middle East|Africa|Politics|Social movements|2010s|Syrian Civil War}}

Revision as of 02:35, 12 October 2014

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The Arab Winter or Islamist Winter, is a term for the wide-scale violence and instability, evolving in the aftermath of the Arab Spring protests in Arab League countries. The Arab Winter is referring to the increasingly violent developments across the Arab World, including the Syrian Civil War, its merging with the Iraqi insurgency into a single regional war, the Egyptian Crisis, Post-civil war violence in Libya and other events, linked with the Arab Winter (or Islamist Winter). For instance, weapons and Tuareg fighters returning from the Libyan Civil War stoked a simmering conflict in Mali which has been described as "fallout" from the Arab Spring in North Africa. The sectarian clashes in Lebanon were described as a spillover of violence from the Syrian Civil War.

The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional civil wars, deteriorating regional instability, economic and demographic decline of the Arab League and ethno-religious strife between Sunni-Arab, Shia-Arab, Kurdish and other Middle Eastern groups. As of summer 2014, the Arab Winter has produced about a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.

ISIS and the Levant conflict

Further information: Timeline of the Iraqi insurgency (2014)

In December 2013, a militant group calling itself the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS), which had been a major participant in the Syrian Civil War and held a large swath of that country, began an offensive against the Shia led Iraqi government. they took Mosul in January 2014 and the following June, started a blitzkrieg-like offensive that took over much of the country and merged the two conflicts into a single regional war. In August ISIS' allies in the West of Syria began a number of attempts to invade Lebanon.

The United States, at the invitation of Iraq, has begun a series of airstrikes against ISIS, and several countries have offered to give military aid to Lebanon. Iran, Russia, the West, and the Arab Legue have pledged aid to country's incapable military. In the Golan Hsghts, the Israeli army has been accidentally attacked.

Theaters of war
Country Date started Status Outcome Death toll Situation
 Iraq 18 December 2011 Ongoing 16,027+ Ongoing Insurgency
 Lebanon 17 June 2011 Ongoing violence
  • Spillover violence from the Syrian Civil War between forces that support the Syrian government and others that oppose it.
  • Full scale battles around the Bekka Valley and the town of Arsal.
  • Chaos in the government, including a prolonged presidential interregnum and the cancellation of Parliamentary elections.
 457–474 D Civil disorder
 Syria 15 March 2011 Ongoing
  • Large defections from the Syrian army and clashes between soldiers and defectors
  • Formation of the Free Syrian Army
  • The Free Syrian Army takes controls of large swathes of land across Syria.
  • Battles between the Syrian government's army and the Free Syrian Army in many governorates.
  • Formation of the Syrian National Council
  • Syria suspended from the Arab League
  • Several countries recognize Syrian government in exile
  • Kurdish fighters enter the war by mid-2013
 191,000+ Ongoing civil war

North Africa

Country Date started Status Outcome Death toll Situation
 Egypt 22 November 2012 Government overthrown in July 2013. Ongoing unrest.

Protests over the imposition of an Islamist-backed constitution by the Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed Morsi lead to a coup d'état.

Sinai insurgency
  • Egyptian Armed Forces launch anti-terror military operations in the Sinai due to increased attacks by insurgents since the ouster of Morsi.
 3,500+ EGovernment overthrown
 Libya 23 August 2011 Ongoing civil disturbance E Intra-factional violence
 Tunisia 23 October 2011 New constitution enacted

Ennahda-led government resigns; Mehdi Jomaa becomes the new prime minister.

E Government resigns

See also

Portals:

References

  1. ^ "Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter - Telegraph". telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 2014-07-19.
  2. "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". Telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  3. "Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'". Cbn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  4. "The Arab Winter". The New Yorker. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  5. "Arab Spring or Arab Winter?". Newyorker.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  6. "Arab Spring into Islamist Winter: Implications for U.S. Policy". The Heritage Foundation. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  7. Paul Sheehan. "Arab spring yields to Muslim winter". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  8. "Mali coup: Arab Spring spreads to Africa". 26 March 2012. Retrieved 31 March 2012.
  9. "Syria-related clashes rage in Lebanon, leaving 13 dead". CNN. 3 June 2012. Retrieved 13 August 2012.
  10. "Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift". Reuters. 31 May 2013. Retrieved 20 September 2014.
  11. "Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'". Al Jazeera. 28 April 2011. Retrieved 28 April 2011.
  12. Yezdani, Ipek (23 August 2011). "Syrian dissidents form national council". The Miami Herald. Retrieved 24 August 2011.
  13. "Syria war death toll tops 191,000". Christian Science Monitor. 22 August 2014.
  14. "Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president". CBS News. 30 June 2012. Retrieved 2012-09-28.
  15. "Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two years". The Guardian. 4 July 2013.
  16. "Prosecution orders arrest of leading Brotherhood members". Ahram Online. 10 July 2013.
  17. "Former Brotherhood supreme guide Akef arrested". Ahram Online. 4 July 2013.
  18. "Muslim Brotherhood's second-man El-Shater arrested: Security official". Ahram Online. 6 July 2013.
  19. "Egypt arrests 2 more Islamist figures: hard-line cleric, a spokesman for Muslim Brotherhood". Fox News. 21 August 2013.
  20. "Egypt: Police arrest Muslim Brotherhood chiefs Mohammed el-Beltagy and Khaled Al-Azhari". London: The Independent. 30 August 2013.
  21. See
  22. "Egyptian court bans Muslim Brotherhood". Reuters. 23 September 2013.
  23. "Egypt government declares Muslim Brotherhood 'terrorist group'". Al-Ahram. 26 December 2013.
  24. "Egypt court sentences 528 Morsi supporters to death". BBC. March 24, 2014.
  25. "Egypt court sentences hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters to death". CNN. April 29, 2014.
  26. "Clashes in Sinai over Morsi removal". Ahram Online. 5 July 2013. Retrieved 5 July 2013.
  27. "ANHRI releases names of dead". Daily News Egypt. June 2, 2013.
  28. "Egypt protesters clash with police at presidential palace". BBC. February 1, 2013.
  29. "Egypt's dead and injured: the toll so far". The Guardian. July 8, 2013.
  30. "Egypt's Unprecedented Instability by the Numbers". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. March 24, 2014.
  31. See
  32. "Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead". Reuters. 12 November 2011.
  33. Fahim, Kareem (30 July 2014). "Libya: Benghazi March Protests Militias". The New York Times. Retrieved 16 August 2014.
  34. "Tunisia election delayed until 23 October". Reuters. 8 June 2011. Retrieved 8 June 2011.
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