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According to the ], as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World is some 800 billion USD.<ref name=rivlin>Dr. Rivlin, P. Dayan Research Center. </ref> Some 16 million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey are expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014.<ref name=rivlin/> According to the ], as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World is some 800 billion USD.<ref name=rivlin>Dr. Rivlin, P. Dayan Research Center. </ref> Some 16 million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey are expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014.<ref name=rivlin/>

==Arenas==
===ISIL conflict===
{{Original research|section|date=October 2014}}
{{unreferenced|section|date=November 2014}}
{{further|Timeline of the Iraqi insurgency (2014)}}

{|class="wikitable sortable"
|-
! scope="col"| Country
! scope="col"| Date started
! scope="col"| Status
! scope="col" class="unsortable"| Outcome
! scope="col"| Death toll
! scope="col"| Situation
|-
|{{flag|Iraq}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|12|18}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Spillover violence from the ] leading to an ISIS invasion.
*] (ISIS) ] ] and ] among other cities in June 2014 and declares a new caliphate.
*Ethnic cleansing and ],], and mass executions of ] by ISIS.
*] on ].
|{{ntsh|16027}} 23,138+
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|]
|-
|{{flag|Lebanon}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|6|17}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Spillover violence from the ] between forces that support the Syrian government and others that oppose it.
*Full scale battles around the Bekka Valley and the town of Arsal.
*Chaos in the government, including a prolonged presidential interregnum and the cancellation of Parliamentary elections.<ref name="Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift">{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/31/us-lebanon-parliament-election-idUSBRE94U19N20130531|title=Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift|publisher=Reuters|date=31 May 2013|accessdate=20 September 2014}}</ref>
|{{ntsh|457}} 457–474
! style="color:#fff; background:#004a80;"|]
|-
|{{flag|Syria}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|3|15|}}
|Ongoing
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*Large defections from the Syrian army and clashes between soldiers and defectors<ref name="Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'">{{cite news|url=http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2011/04/2011428182333234775.html|title=Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'|publisher=Al Jazeera|date=28 April 2011|accessdate=28 April 2011}}</ref>
*Formation of the ]
*The Free Syrian Army takes controls of large swathes of land across Syria.
*Battles between the Syrian government's army and the ] in many governorates.
*Formation of the ]<ref name="Syrian dissidents form national council">{{cite news|url=http://www.miamiherald.com/2011/08/23/2372099/syrian-dissidents-form-national.html|title=Syrian dissidents form national council|first=Ipek|last=Yezdani|work=The Miami Herald|date=23 August 2011|accessdate=24 August 2011}}{{Dead link|date=May 2014}}</ref>
*Syria suspended from the ]
*Several countries recognize ] ]
*Kurdish fighters enter the war by mid-2013
|{{ntsh|160000}} 191,000+<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Latest-News-Wires/2014/0822/UN-reports-Syria-conflict-death-toll-reaches-191-000-video | agency=Christian Science Monitor | title=Syria war death toll tops 191,000 | date=22 August 2014}}</ref>
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|]
|-
|}

===North Africa===
{|class="wikitable sortable" style="font-size: 95%"
|-
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Country
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Date started
! scope="col" style="width:16%;"| Status
! scope="col" style="width:40%;" class="unsortable"| Outcome
! scope="col" style="width:10%;"| Death toll
! scope="col" style="width:14%;"| Situation
|-
|{{flag|Egypt}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2012|11|22}}
|Government overthrown in July 2013. Ongoing unrest.
|<nowiki></nowiki>
'''Protests over the imposition of an Islamist-backed constitution by the ] and ] lead to a ].'''
*] held to replace Mubarak as the new president of Egypt; ] elected and inaugurated<ref name="Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president">{{cite news|url=http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57464345/mohammed-morsi-sworn-in-as-egypts-president/ |title=Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president |publisher=CBS News |date=30 June 2012 |accessdate=2012-09-28}}</ref>
*Morsi removed by military in a ] following a ] that came after months of ].<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/03/mohamed-morsi-egypt-second-revolution|title=Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two years|date=4 July 2013|publisher=The Guardian}}</ref>
*Crackdown on the ] and other Islamists:
**Senior Islamist figures have been arrested and face trial.{{#tag:ref|See <ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/76158/Egypt/Politics-/Prosecution-orders-arrest-of-leading-Brotherhood-m.aspx|title=Prosecution orders arrest of leading Brotherhood members|date=10 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75721/Egypt/Politics-/Former-Brotherhood-supreme-guide-Akef-arrested-.aspx|title=Former Brotherhood supreme guide Akef arrested|date=4 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75815/Egypt/Politics-/Muslim-Brotherhoods-secondman-ElShater-arrested-Se.aspx|title=Muslim Brotherhood's second-man El-Shater arrested: Security official|date=6 July 2013|publisher=Ahram Online}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/21/egypt-arrests-2-more-islamist-figures-hard-line-cleric-spokesman-for-muslim/|title=Egypt arrests 2 more Islamist figures: hard-line cleric, a spokesman for Muslim Brotherhood|date=21 August 2013|publisher=Fox News}}</ref><ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/egypt-police-arrest-muslim-brotherhood-chiefs-mohammed-elbeltagy-and-khaled-alazhari-8790828.html|title=Egypt: Police arrest Muslim Brotherhood chiefs Mohammed el-Beltagy and Khaled Al-Azhari|date=30 August 2013|publisher=The Independent|location=London}}</ref>}}
**] of pro-Morsi sit-ins on August 14, 2013.
**A court bans all Muslim Brotherhood activities nationwide and its assets are confiscated.<ref>{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/23/us-egypt-brotherhood-idUSBRE98M0QR20130923|title=Egyptian court bans Muslim Brotherhood|date=23 September 2013|publisher=Reuters}}</ref> The government eventually designates the group as a ] on December 25, 2013.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/90037.aspx|title=Egypt government declares Muslim Brotherhood 'terrorist group'|date=26 December 2013|publisher=Al-Ahram}}</ref>
**Sentencing to death of hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26712124|title=Egypt court sentences 528 Morsi supporters to death|date=March 24, 2014|publisher=BBC}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://edition.cnn.com/2014/04/28/world/africa/egypt-politics/|title=Egypt court sentences hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters to death|date=April 29, 2014|publisher=CNN}}</ref>
**] in response to the coup.
*] becomes president following a ].
;]:
*] launch anti-terror military operations in the Sinai due to increased attacks by insurgents since the ousting of Morsi.<ref>{{cite web|url=http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/75792/Egypt/Politics-/Clashes-in-Sinai-over-Morsi-removal.aspx|title=Clashes in Sinai over Morsi removal|publisher=Ahram Online|date=5 July 2013|accessdate=5 July 2013}}</ref>
|{{ntsh|3500}} 3,500+{{#tag:ref|See <ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2013/06/02/anhri-releases-names-of-dead/|title=ANHRI releases names of dead|date=June 2, 2013|publisher=Daily News Egypt}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-21289729|title=Egypt protesters clash with police at presidential palace|date=February 1, 2013|publisher=BBC}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2013/jul/08/egypt-dead-injured-toll-so-far|title=Egypt's dead and injured: the toll so far|date=July 8, 2013|publisher=The Guardian}}</ref><ref>{{cite web|url=http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/03/24/egypt-s-unprecedented-instability-by-numbers/h5j3|title=Egypt’s Unprecedented Instability by the Numbers|date=March 24, 2014|publisher=Carnegie Endowment for International Peace}}</ref>}}
! style="color:#fff; background:#00112b;"|]
|-
||{{flag|Libya}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|8|23}}
|Ongoing violence
|<nowiki></nowiki>
*]<ref name="Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead">{{cite news|url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/12/us-libya-clashes-idUSTRE7AB0HU20111112|title=Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead|agency=Reuters|date=12 November 2011}}</ref>
*] to a ] on 7 July 2012.
*In May 2014, General ] launched ] codenamed ''Operation Dignity'' on Islamist militia groups.
*Conflict intensifies in July 2014 and is driven out of Benghazi by ] militants who declare the region an "Islamic emirate".<ref>{{cite web | url=http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/31/world/middleeast/libya-benghazi-march-protests-militias.html?_r=1 | title=Libya: Benghazi March Protests Militias | publisher=The New York Times | date=30 July 2014 | accessdate=16 August 2014 | author=Fahim, Kareem}}</ref>
|
! style="color:#fff; background:#950000;"|]
|-
|{{flag|Tunisia}}
|{{dts|format=dmy|2011|10|23}}
|New constitution enacted
|<nowiki></nowiki>
''']-led government resigns; ] becomes the new prime minister.'''
*Elections to a ] on 23 October 2011<ref name="Tunisia election delayed until 23 October">{{cite news |url=http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/us-tunisia-election-idUSTRE7571R020110608 |title=Tunisia election delayed until 23 October |agency=Reuters |date=8 June 2011 |accessdate=8 June 2011}}</ref>
*] against the interim Islamist-led government.
*Prime Minister ] resigns and replaced by a technocratic government formed by ], a former minister in ].
*New constitution ].
|
! style="color:#fff; background:#006400;"|]
|-
|}


==See also== ==See also==

Revision as of 22:54, 12 November 2014

The Arab Winter is a term for the wide-scale violence and instability evolving in the aftermath of the Arab Spring protests in Arab League countries. The Arab Winter is referring to the events across the Arab World, including the Syrian Civil War, the Iraqi insurgency, the Egyptian Crisis, and instability in Yemen. Political developments, particularly the restoration of authoritarianism and suppression of civil liberties, in Egypt since 3 July 2013 have been described as constituting a "military winter" functioning in opposition to the goals of the Arab Spring. The arenas of Lebanon, Libya and Bahrain were also described as minor arenas of the Arab Winter. Libya was put as a scene of the Arab Winter, together with Syria by Prof. Sean Yom.

The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional civil wars, mounting regional instability, economic and demographic decline of Arab countries, and ethno-religious sectarian strife. As of summer 2014, the Arab Winter has produced about a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.

According to the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World is some 800 billion USD. Some 16 million people in Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey are expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014.

Arenas

ISIL conflict

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Further information: Timeline of the Iraqi insurgency (2014)
Country Date started Status Outcome Death toll Situation
 Iraq 18 December 2011 Ongoing 23,138+ Ongoing Insurgency
 Lebanon 17 June 2011 Ongoing
  • Spillover violence from the Syrian Civil War between forces that support the Syrian government and others that oppose it.
  • Full scale battles around the Bekka Valley and the town of Arsal.
  • Chaos in the government, including a prolonged presidential interregnum and the cancellation of Parliamentary elections.
457–474 D Civil disorder
 Syria 15 March 2011 Ongoing
  • Large defections from the Syrian army and clashes between soldiers and defectors
  • Formation of the Free Syrian Army
  • The Free Syrian Army takes controls of large swathes of land across Syria.
  • Battles between the Syrian government's army and the Free Syrian Army in many governorates.
  • Formation of the Syrian National Council
  • Syria suspended from the Arab League
  • Several countries recognize Syrian government in exile
  • Kurdish fighters enter the war by mid-2013
191,000+ Ongoing civil war

North Africa

Country Date started Status Outcome Death toll Situation
 Egypt 22 November 2012 Government overthrown in July 2013. Ongoing unrest.

Protests over the imposition of an Islamist-backed constitution by the Muslim Brotherhood and Mohamed Morsi lead to a coup d'état.

Sinai insurgency
  • Egyptian Armed Forces launch anti-terror military operations in the Sinai due to increased attacks by insurgents since the ousting of Morsi.
3,500+ EGovernment overthrown
 Libya 23 August 2011 Ongoing violence E Ongoing civil war
 Tunisia 23 October 2011 New constitution enacted

Ennahda-led government resigns; Mehdi Jomaa becomes the new prime minister.

E New parliament elected

See also

Portals:

References

  1. "Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter - Telegraph". telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 2014-07-19.
  2. "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". Telegraph.co.uk. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  3. "Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'". Cbn.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  4. "The Arab Winter". The New Yorker. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  5. "Arab Spring or Arab Winter?". Newyorker.com. Retrieved 8 October 2014.
  6. "Fear and Faith in Paradise". Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  7. "Arab Winter". America Staging. Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  8. "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  9. "Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'". euronews. Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  10. "Yemen's Arab winter". Middle East Eye. Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  11. "The Coup in Egypt: An Arab Winter?". The Nation. 5 July 2013. Retrieved 1 November 2014.
  12. "In Egypt, Arab Spring Gives Way To Military Winter". The World Post. 21 January 2014. Retrieved 1 November 2014.
  13. ^ Dr. Rivlin, P. Dayan Research Center.
  14. "Lecture Explores Past and Future Arab Spring". Daily Gazette. Retrieved 19 October 2014.
  15. "From Egypt to Syria, this could be the start of the Arab Winter". The Conversation. 17 April 2014. Retrieved 23 October 2014.
  16. Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa - between the Arab Winter and the Arab Spring. International Affairs.
  17. "Lebanese parliament delays June election, deepening drift". Reuters. 31 May 2013. Retrieved 20 September 2014.
  18. "Syrian army units 'clash over crackdown'". Al Jazeera. 28 April 2011. Retrieved 28 April 2011.
  19. Yezdani, Ipek (23 August 2011). "Syrian dissidents form national council". The Miami Herald. Retrieved 24 August 2011.
  20. "Syria war death toll tops 191,000". Christian Science Monitor. 22 August 2014.
  21. "Mohammed Morsi sworn in as Egypt's president". CBS News. 30 June 2012. Retrieved 2012-09-28.
  22. "Mohamed Morsi ousted in Egypt's second revolution in two years". The Guardian. 4 July 2013.
  23. "Prosecution orders arrest of leading Brotherhood members". Ahram Online. 10 July 2013.
  24. "Former Brotherhood supreme guide Akef arrested". Ahram Online. 4 July 2013.
  25. "Muslim Brotherhood's second-man El-Shater arrested: Security official". Ahram Online. 6 July 2013.
  26. "Egypt arrests 2 more Islamist figures: hard-line cleric, a spokesman for Muslim Brotherhood". Fox News. 21 August 2013.
  27. "Egypt: Police arrest Muslim Brotherhood chiefs Mohammed el-Beltagy and Khaled Al-Azhari". London: The Independent. 30 August 2013.
  28. See
  29. "Egyptian court bans Muslim Brotherhood". Reuters. 23 September 2013.
  30. "Egypt government declares Muslim Brotherhood 'terrorist group'". Al-Ahram. 26 December 2013.
  31. "Egypt court sentences 528 Morsi supporters to death". BBC. March 24, 2014.
  32. "Egypt court sentences hundreds of Muslim Brotherhood supporters to death". CNN. April 29, 2014.
  33. "Clashes in Sinai over Morsi removal". Ahram Online. 5 July 2013. Retrieved 5 July 2013.
  34. "ANHRI releases names of dead". Daily News Egypt. June 2, 2013.
  35. "Egypt protesters clash with police at presidential palace". BBC. February 1, 2013.
  36. "Egypt's dead and injured: the toll so far". The Guardian. July 8, 2013.
  37. "Egypt's Unprecedented Instability by the Numbers". Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. March 24, 2014.
  38. See
  39. "Fighters clash again near Tripoli, several dead". Reuters. 12 November 2011.
  40. Fahim, Kareem (30 July 2014). "Libya: Benghazi March Protests Militias". The New York Times. Retrieved 16 August 2014.
  41. "Tunisia election delayed until 23 October". Reuters. 8 June 2011. Retrieved 8 June 2011.
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