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This article has previously been nominated to be moved. Please review the prior discussions if you are considering re-nomination. Discussions: 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic in mainland China → 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic in China, Not moved, 4 April 2020, Talk:2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China#Requested_move_27_March_2020

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This article contains a translation of 2019年－2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎事件對中国大陆的影响 from zh.wikipedia.

It seems some Chinese are disinfecting with UV rays.

(similar to what I posted in Talk:Coronavirus disease 2019#some stuff about UV rays to disinfect)

China cleans bank notes in bid to limit coronavirus COVID-19 spread
Last week, China's central bank, the People's Bank of China, announced it would be cleaning thousands of bank notes by using ultraviolet light or high temperatures to cut off the spread of infection through money exchanges.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/china-cleaning-money-limit-coronavirus-covid-19/11983364

Buses undergo UV disinfection in China during COVID-19 outbreak
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJo1p-RDKc4
0:52

DMBFFF (talk) 00:42, 25 March 2020 (UTC)

No notes/references

Something seems to be off... there are no notes and references listed at the bottom, and the link provided for them leads to wikipedia pages on reference templates... — Preceding unsigned comment added by Luisa Valencia (talk • contribs) 13:16, 25 March 2020 (UTC)

This is probably because there are too many references which hits a limit in the scribuntu backend. ""postexpandincludesize":{"value":2097152,"limit":2097152}" The max is hit before the page is fully rendered. This can be mitigated by splitting the page in smaller subpages.--So9q (talk) 15:11, 25 March 2020 (UTC)

I hid some of the maps and other templates which were causing the post-expand include size to exceed the limits, which fixes it for now, but we're very close to hitting the limit again just due to the sheer number of {{cite web}} templates on the page. --Ahecht (TALK
PAGE) 18:34, 26 March 2020 (UTC)

Hm, so how does one prevent these errors other than hiding? Using other templates other than 'cite news' or 'cite web'? (I wonder if that's possible for alot of the news site links available) Donkey Hot-day (talk) 00:41, 27 March 2020 (UTC)

@Donkey Hot-day: For now, probably removing {{2019–20 coronavirus pandemic data/Mainland China medical cases chart}} would be the next step. Beyond that, you could hard-code the references instead of using {{Cite web}} et al., but in general when the citations alone exceed 2MB, it's time to split the article. --Ahecht (TALK
PAGE) 19:14, 30 March 2020 (UTC)

Setted usage

Lockdown and curfew Government-issued permit for Jintan residents. Jintan announced that each family should only have one member to be outdoor for shopping life necessities for every 2 days. See also: 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak § Outdoor restrictions

Ever since Hubei's lockdown, areas bordering Hubei including Yueyang, Hunan and Xinyang, Henan setted checkpoints up at roads connecting to Hubei to urge cars and people from Hubei. Between 24–25 January, the local governments of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hainan and other areas announced to quarantine passengers from "key areas" of Hubei for 14 days. Chongqing also announced to screen every person who arrived from Wuhan since 1 January and setted 3 centers for treatment up.

The word "setted" should likely be reduced to "set"

--Acheide (talk) 14:47, 26 March 2020 (UTC)Abraham March 26, 2020

Remove sentence with heavily biased source

"The government has worked to censor and counter reporting and criticism about the crisis, and to portray the official response to the outbreak in a positive light."

This sentence at the bottom of the introductory summary has no evidence and is reliant on two opinionated articles from The New York Times. This newspaper has continually shown itself to be anti-Chinese when writing about issues related to China. Is there any way we can modify this sentence or find reputable evidence to back it, preferably from the country that this article is aimed to be about? JMonkey2006 (talk) 09:52, 27 March 2020 (UTC)

NYT is a reliable source. —Granger (talk · contribs) 15:46, 27 March 2020 (UTC)

Country of origin of the source shouldn't matter. Google "china coronavirus censorship" and see if you can find reliable sources. I think this study by CitizenLab would be a great source to add. Or check out the interview with Ai Fen, that accused of censorship and got censored itself. --CasparV (talk) 16:03, 27 March 2020 (UTC)

Citation needed for 2nd sentence in the article

I cannot find an original source for this important sentence:

A Wuhan hospital notified the local center for disease control and prevention (CDC) and health commissions on 27 December 2019.

It doesn't really match with information on Timeline_of_the_2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_November_2019_–_January_2020#Pandemic_chronology

• 12 December: new viral outbreak was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China, on 12 December 2019.

As this is a politically sensitive subject, there's a lot of false information out there and verifiable sources are top priority. Unfortunately I couldn't find any hard evidence, and also I'm a WP-noob, don't know the best course of action according to WP policy. --CasparV (talk) 15:40, 27 March 2020 (UTC)

Censorship, propaganda, and police responses

The first known infection by a new virus was reported in Wuhan on 1 December 2019. The early response by city authorities was accused of prioritising a control of information on the outbreak. A group of eight medical pe...

Only mentioning December 1 implies censorship was also from that day on. However, the first known infection was not a suspicious patient on December 1 and probably wasn't diagnosed with a SARS(-like) virus until December 26 (source). (Full censorship seems to have been from there until at least until December 31, when WHO was informed. Though after that, Wenliang and colleagues were still 'handled' by the authorities).

I am not experienced enough to (be allowed to) edit. Could someone look into making this paragraph less susceptible to false interpretation? --CasparV (talk) 16:34, 27 March 2020 (UTC)

Requested move 27 March 2020

The following is a closed discussion of a requested move. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made in a new section on the talk page. Editors desiring to contest the closing decision should consider a move review after discussing it on the closer's talk page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

The result of the move request was: Clear consensus not to move. (non-admin closure) {{u|Sdkb}}  00:32, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

2019–20 coronavirus pandemic in mainland China → 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic in China – Per China. Sawol (talk) 17:57, 27 March 2020 (UTC)

@Sawol: I don't understand the rationale for the proposed move. —Granger (talk · contribs) 22:03, 27 March 2020 (UTC)

I think the reason is that the article China is there but there is also Mainland China (excluding Hong Kong and Macau). Crouch, Swale (talk) 22:26, 27 March 2020 (UTC)

This article doesn't cover HK or Macau but rather is focused on mainland China. COVID-19 in HK and Macau is covered in separate articles. So on that basis I have to oppose. —Granger (talk · contribs) 01:36, 28 March 2020 (UTC)

Oppose, there are separate articles about HK and Macau. Dede2008 (talk) 01:48, 28 March 2020 (UTC)

• Oppose per all replies above. There is virtually no rationale for this move, as the proposer has not adequately explained any part of their reasoning. People also need to understand that Hong Kong and Macau are part of China, not independent nations, and there already exists the articles 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Hong Kong and 2020 coronavirus pandemic in Macau. Therefore, the "Mainland China" disambiguation is necessary to distinguish this article from the two aforementioned. – PhilipTerryGraham (talk · articles · reviews) 03:23, 28 March 2020 (UTC)

Oppose. We mustn't let this page on a virus attract a geopolitics debate about Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan and so on. The article doesn't discuss Taiwan, Hong Kong etc anyway as they have their own wikipedia pages. There is no reason to cause a media frenzy and get this page locked. Peter Kelford (talk) 14:03, 28 March 2020 (UTC)

• Oppose There are separate articles on Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.Dimadick (talk) 14:18, 28 March 2020 (UTC)
• Oppose The NHC of China reports cases separately, and Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, have different epidemic situation, and are covered in respective articles. Peter Wu (2019) 02:46, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
• Oppose per all the above reasons. Mgasparin (talk) 03:22, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
• weak Oppose per all the above reasons. Red China < China, Red China ≠ China. DMBFFF (talk) 16:46, 29 March 2020 (UTC)
• Oppose As there already are separate articles for the regions of Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, it would be redundant to rename it as such. Doing so would require a merger of those articles as the name would suggest information on the pandemic in all of China. Shawnqual (talk) 21:24, 31 March 2020 (UTC)
• Oppose Per arguments above. --Efly (talk) 04:43, 1 April 2020 (UTC)
• Oppose Per arguments above. Rebestalic 10:06, 1 April 2020 (UTC)
• Comment Use the official name instead of "mainland China." i.e. "2020 coronavirus pandemic in People's Republic" or "2020 coronavirus pandemic in The PRC" or "2020 coronavirus pandemic in People's Republic of China" to differentiate it from "2020 coronavirus pandemic in Republic of China" which is Taiwan.—SquidHomme 03:26, 3 April 2020 (UTC)

  Hong Kong and Macau are part of the PRC but not mainland China. --Ahecht (TALK
  PAGE) 03:57, 3 April 2020 (UTC)

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

General RfC opened

Hello everybody, because arguments here can be applied to many other articles (e.g. Cinema of China, Video games in China, etc.) instead of this specific page only, I've opened a general RfC on "mainland China" vs "China" in article titles here. Feel free to discuss there! -- Akira😼CA 01:11, 2 April 2020 (UTC)

Per capita map

Per the consensus at the overall pandemic article, a cases per capita map would be preferable to one that lists totals by province (thus skewing toward making it look like the pandemic is worse in more populated areas). If anyone is willing to create such a map (ideally an SVG that uses formatting similar to the main world maps at the top of 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic), I would support adding it to the subsection of that article on China's response. Sdkb (talk) 06:34, 28 March 2020 (UTC)

Update: Pechristener helpfully identified that such a map exists at File:COVID-19 attack rate in Mainland China.svg. I'm going to make it the main map for the infobox. {{u|Sdkb}}  00:04, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

The caption under the photo.

"Patronage was significantly reduced at May 4th Square Station of Qingdao Metro Line 3 during the epidemic."

Patronage? I can't find any sense in it. Please, could you explain it? 85.193.250.200 (talk) 12:03, 29 March 2020 (UTC)

Okay, now I understand. However, the word patronage is ambiguous, and its primary meaning is the support given by a patron, and hence my confusion. 85.193.250.200 (talk) 12:10, 30 March 2020 (UTC)

• Changed to "ridership" from "patronage". The change should make things less ambiguous. Risker (talk) 17:04, 30 March 2020 (UTC)

@Risker: Great, thank you :-) 85.193.250.200 (talk) 13:12, 31 March 2020 (UTC)

China enters flood season

Quoted in full:

"China's Ministry of Water Resources Saturday warned that floods are expected to hit the country and called on relevant departments to make preparation.

Heavy rains have hit parts of southern, eastern and central China since Wednesday, pushing water levels in some rivers well above warning lines, the ministry said.

China entered its flood season on Saturday, four days earlier than previous years, and the country may suffer from more and stronger rain as well as floods with more extreme weather forecast for the flood season, the ministry warned.

The process of repairing damaged water conservancy facilities should be pushed forward and examinations ahead of the flood season should be made to restore their functions in time, said E Jingping, minister of water resources.

He also called for more efforts on managing reservoir, preventing mountain floods and improving the precision of flood forecast."

I think that something about the heightened alert for seasonally early floods in China may be relevant to the pandemic, or relevant somewhere on Misplaced Pages--- but I don't know quite where and ask for your help finding that place.

Geographyinitiative (talk) 14:28, 29 March 2020 (UTC)

Is there something in this article relating to the concerns about accuracy of number of infected/deceased?

I couldn't find it, but perhaps it's in another article? Sample reference sources here and here. Since there are many editors who have worked hard on this article, I don't want to jump in without full understanding of what has happened before. Risker (talk) 04:35, 30 March 2020 (UTC)

• Support - This topic needs its own section. There is (and has been) growing suspicion that China's numbers are complete nonsense. -- Veggies (talk) 19:10, 1 April 2020 (UTC)
  • In fairness, there are now concerns about the completeness of numbers from a lot of countries. I've since read articles relating to Italy, Spain, the UK, and even the US, where it is alleged that the deaths attributed to Covid-19 reflect mainly deaths where the deceased had a positive test and (usually) died in hospital; those who died at home, in non-hospital facilities, or did not get tested may not be included in the totals. This may be something more for the overview article? Risker (talk) 19:34, 1 April 2020 (UTC)
    • We're not talking about aberrations in data or different standards for counting. The allegations against China are that they have deliberately covered up and concealed actual figures, including persecuting any authorities that speak out. -- Veggies (talk) 12:58, 2 April 2020 (UTC)
      • For what it's worth, I would support Veggies' point here. There is data that indicates that 1 in 5 people may be asymptomatic (CDC) and that there are people who get the illness but simply ride it out without being tested because they think it's the common cold. These sorts of things are testing insufficiencies for sure. They obscure data collection. But, a death of data knowledge due to asymptomatic cases or people not getting tested because they are not severe is NOT a result of negligence, which is often the charge levied upon China, from what I have read. I think that, whether it is a separate article or not, there should be documentation of the high level of doubt surrounding China's reporting of numbers. The CIA has noted that numbers have been misreported by China, and there is growing evidence to support the fact that China's government has been dishonest. CharlieWilloughby (talk)

Leaked US intelligence reports have apparently confirmed this idea, so I added it to the article. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says Titanium Dragon (talk) 20:51, 1 April 2020 (UTC)

Any insertion of allegations of cases under-reporting in the lede should not mention only a single nation's allegations, let alone a single agency that had admitted its operations in mainland China were decimated in the recent past. Either mention the U.S. NSC in conjunction with UK minister Michael Gove as well, or none, per WP:UNDUE. CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 23:13, 3 April 2020 (UTC)

Given the seriousness of the issue and obvious gross misreporting by China, your statement makes no sense. Entire world has been doubting the stats provided by China. See this too. This deserves a mention on lead which is currently overloaded with "praises by WHO" (which should be mentioned only one time). CodeSlashh (talk) 08:29, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Given that Michael Gove has always been in Boris Johnson's Cabinet, perhaps you should read WP:CIR. And we can all make do without Entire world unsourced hyperbolic nonsense. CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 13:13, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

What Michael Gove has to do with the facts stated by British scientists that China underreported coronavirus statistics? I would say you are the one who needs to read WP:CIR. See . It is fair to say that there is unanimous agreement over doubting China has been deliberately underreporting the statistics. Info had been added by Vgy7ujm and you have already tried to remove it enough times even after getting reverted two times by Horse Eye Jack. Since Jaedglass has also brought some new information, I would strongly recommend you to stop with these attempts now. NavjotSR (talk) 15:01, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

If your argument is to be taken seriously, perhaps it is advisable not to cite a "3,500 urns" conspiracy theory tracing to both Radio Free Asia and Jennifer Zeng, who is known to have palled around with Tea Partiers, and certainly not to pass that off as British scientists. CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 15:24, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

I never cited such information. Don't misrepresent my comments. NavjotSR (talk) 16:07, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

British scientists is literally cited in the first sentence here. CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 16:22, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

I don't understand. Is there something about having connections to the "Tea Party" that makes a source unreliable? -- Veggies (talk) 17:41, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

She thinks Chinese people view Trump as their "powerful grandpa". CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 18:05, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Perhaps some of them do. Or maybe some don't. Are we citing her personal blog for something...or is this a complete non-sequitur on your part? -- Veggies (talk) 18:16, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

The Washington Post is a reputable news organization which has now run a high profile news article written by their Beijing Bureau Chief, with sourced information concerning the numbers of cremations and the numbers of people collecting the remains of family members. Presenting information that contradicts official Chinese government officials is entirely appropriate under these circumstances, and that information should be presented early enough in the article to temper reliance of questionable official statistics.Jaedglass (talk) 15:50, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Appeal to authority: You have not at all addressed the concerns that MarioGom and I raised over that bogus urns / cremations theory. And contradicts official Chinese government officials is entirely appropriate seems like a misunderstanding of WP:RGW. CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 15:55, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Washington Post is the source and is considered as WP:RS whether you like it or not. NavjotSR (talk) 16:07, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

It isn't WP:MEDRS and it isn't infallible. CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 16:13, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

We're not making biomedical claims or talking about biomedical information. This is a political point: are the numbers of cases and deaths that China has published accurate or not? If not, is there deliberate deception involved on the part of the Chinese government? -- Veggies (talk) 17:41, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Veggies: Please, see the latest comments at #Possibility of under reported cases. WaPo here is just reporting about some social media rumors. These are due in the article because these rumors had high impact in reliable sources, but they are social media rumors and are now presented as such. You don't need to shout to make your point clear. --MarioGom (talk) 17:52, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Where did I say anything about the Washington Post? Why has the discussion split into two different sections? And I don't think you've read WP:SHOUT or what you linked to at all. -- Veggies (talk) 17:58, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Veggies: I assumed you were referring to WaPo's report because that's what the message you replied to was about. Of course I've read what I linked: More than occasional use of bold, italics and underline is also very 'shouty' behaviour.. Best, --MarioGom (talk) 18:01, 4 April 2020 (UTC) Anyway, WP:CAPSLOCK is an essay, not policy or guidelines, you are free to ignore the passage I mentioned. I'm sorry if my remark came as inappropriate. --MarioGom (talk) 18:05, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

The line under Context: "It should be kept in mind that the Covid-19 rapid test manufactured in Peoples Republic of China only had sensitivity of 30%" should be removed

I mean it's not inaccurate but it's misleading and it definitely isn't the cause for the lower numbers.

Only Spain bought those 30% ones that weren't even signed off in China by their government, so unlikely they're using those kits everywhere.

Epicity1123 (talk) 23:16, 31 March 2020 (UTC)

You're right. The sentence as written was impermissible original synthesis. I've removed it from the article. —Granger (talk · contribs) 23:39, 31 March 2020 (UTC)

1. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-test-kits-withdrawn-spain-poor-accuracy-rate

Recoveries

Are there any sources in english describing what the method for evaluating recovery is in these numbers? Is it recovery from symptoms or testing negative? And which tests are being used? 72.15.124.196 (talk) 15:05, 1 April 2020 (UTC)

Possibility of under reported cases

There is a possibility that the numbers in China are much higher than believed.

For example several news sources claimed 42,000 asymptotic cases were excluded from the reports for confirmed cases. Not to mention some claims of China only reporting cases where people died after diagnosis.

I’m not trying to promote any conspiracy theories or spread misinformation but, we know that China isn’t a very reliable source on matters.

So I think we should add other sources on the number of cases. CycoMa (talk) 21:57, 1 April 2020 (UTC)

• Please see the discussion above. China isn't the only one, and the more I am reading the more I think this needs to be in the main article, or possibly as a split-out article. Risker (talk) 22:22, 1 April 2020 (UTC)

• • I think addressing the challenge that asymptomatic cases represent in controlling and accurately modelling the pandemic would be a good idea, either in this page or the main page. CharlieWilloughby (talk) —Preceding undated comment added 07:19, 3 April 2020 (UTC)

I can see a section called 2019–20_coronavirus_pandemic_in_mainland_China#Undercounting_of_cases on the article. But we need to mention on lead as well and this should be done soon. CodeSlashh (talk) 08:25, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

The reporting coming out of China suggests a significant under reporting of Covid-19 deaths by the Chinese government. Given these facts, the tardy response of Chinese government officials, and the number of deaths in Italy and Spain, the idea that China suffered so few deaths is implausible. As such, I think this section needs to be far more prominent in the article.Jaedglass (talk) 15:35, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Can you provide WP:RS on deaths under-reporting that do not mention the "3,500 urns in Wuhan" conspiracy theory or political actors in the U.S. government (as opposed to, e.g. NIH / CDC)? CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 15:40, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Crisis management in China and Italy/Spain have been extremely different. Expecting the exact same transmission rate would be quite naive. Anyway, feel free to suggest reliable sources. --MarioGom (talk) 15:43, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

@MarioGom: I see Jaedglass has provided the Washington Post story that uncritically regurgitated the "social media users calculated 42K deaths from 3,500 urns" conspiracy theory. The inherent problem with this calculation, is that Vice admitted "seven crematoriums in Wuhan have been handing out over 3,500 urns per day since the restrictions were eased." This represents an obvious backlog...how can the crematoriums be possibly handing out urns during the complete lockdown of the city? CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 15:47, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

CaradhrasAiguo: Sure. I know about this story and it could be due somewhere in the article with clear attribution. There is a lot of speculation around the story: the underlying source is dubious social media users, where the urns were used is dubious, the extrapolation is dubious, etc. --MarioGom (talk) 15:52, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Also note that we are extremely careful with COVID-19-related rumors and hoaxes circulating in social media. I don't think China should be an exception. --MarioGom (talk) 15:55, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Per Misplaced Pages:Reliable sources/Perennial sources the Washington Post is a WP:RS. Arguments can be made to edit the language used to better summarize the text but arguments to exclude the source entirely based on reliability will have to be made on Misplaced Pages:Reliable sources/Noticeboard and only after achieving consensus there can you then make that argument here. Horse Eye Jack (talk) 16:05, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Neither MarioGom nor I are arguing for excluding the WaPo entirely, in all circumstances; referring to WP:RS/N is a typical red herring. We are arguing that this particular article should be excluded on the grounds we mentioned above. As a comparison, would you argue that the pernicious WaPo "Russian hackers infiltrated Vermont's power grid" story back in Jan 2017 be presented without qualification, giving WP:UNDUE weight to fringe, disproven theories? CaradhrasAiguo (leave language) 16:11, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

As always more weight would be given to more recently published pieces, like this one entitled "Russian government hackers do not appear to have targeted Vermont utility, say people close to investigation” and any retractions should be noted. When WP:RS mess up they own it, thats one of the things that makes them reliable sources. If the WaPo issues a retraction or publishes another story on the subject you are more than welcome to edit the article based on that retraction or more recent story. Horse Eye Jack (talk) 16:16, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

• I have edited the paragraph, adding an additional source (South China Morning Post) that provides more context and provides further insight about dates (). The Washington Post clearly states that these figures come from social media users. This required clarification in the text to avoid misrepresentation of WaPo's report. --MarioGom (talk) 16:19, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Thank you for your edit MarioGom, we don’t want to make it seem like Misplaced Pages or The Washington Post are making a statement thats attributed to a third party and your edit cleared that issue right up. Horse Eye Jack (talk) 16:21, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

hospitalizations, intensive care

do we have a time series of hospitalizations and intensive care patients for china? W!B: (talk) 09:32, 2 April 2020 (UTC)

Lead

I think User:NavjotSR is right and the lead needs a re-write , but I think we should some sort of discussion specifically about the lead first. Certainly there are lots of places where the current text does not measure up to the MOS. Horse Eye Jack (talk) 15:07, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

MOS? Let me know what are the issues. The lead I have written came after I carefully read this section and made sure to include only high quality reliable sources. NavjotSR (talk) 15:18, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

The WP:MOS, the relevant one is Misplaced Pages:Manual of Style/Lead section. Its also generally best to wait until a talk page discussion has either been closed or WP:Consensus has been reached before implementing changes proposed there. Again I like your edits, but I think if we’re gonna take on this mammoth lead we should do it systematically. Horse Eye Jack (talk) 15:34, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

Barron's analysis

On 13 February, Barron's reported that China's coronavirus data was not mathematically credible: "A statistical analysis of China’s coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say isn’t likely to naturally occur, casting doubt over the reliability of the numbers being reported to the World Health Organization". Specifically, the cumulative fatalities time series fit a simple mathematical formula with an R-squared of 0.99, whereas real-world data, according to a statistician quoted in the article, rarely produces an R-squared as high as 0.75

This is big time bullshit. Cumulative deaths in Spain fit an exponential curve with R-squared ~0.995 and Italy fits with ~0.988. Do you know if there is more recent time series analysis? Barron's speculation could have made sense on February 13, but it clearly does not match today's evidence at all. --MarioGom (talk) 16:47, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

As of today, cumulative deaths in the US fit an exponential curve with R-squared 0.997. Hopefully we can find some papers with proper epidemiologic analysis. --MarioGom (talk) 17:16, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

I also call into question the reliability of this source to make the extraordinary claim that real-world data rarely produces an R-squared as high as 0.75 or that this is casting doubt over the reliability of the numbers being reported to the World Health Organization. The author of the column is specialized in markets reporting. The cited statistician is not specialized in epidemiology or science, he is specialized in markets. Market data rarely fits any kind of model too well, but epidemiologic data does. --MarioGom (talk) 17:33, 4 April 2020 (UTC)

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