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The Four Year Plan was a plan developed by Che Guevara and embraced by various Cuban officials in the economic planning commission JUCEPLAN. The plan was intended to be a classic soviet five year plan, but was reduced to four years, so it would conclude at the same date as other Eastern Bloc five year plans. The plan was to be carried out from 1962 to 1965, but was abandoned prematurely in 1964.

The plan supposed that Cuba could quickly deemphasize the importance of sugar cultivation in its economy, and instead become a diverse industrial economy. According to Guevara, through the nationalization of industries, and a strong moral enthusiasm for labor taught to the working class, Cuba could rapidly industrialize. The implementation of the plan resulted in economic crisis. Sugar was Cuba's most lucrative export, and by 1962, sugar exports were in steep decline. The use of moral rewards to compensate hard work also did not lead to increased productivity, but instead to increased worker absenteeism. By the end of 1962, the economic crisis would spark a heated debate in Cuba regarding the future of economic planning.

History

Implementation

In 1960, Guevara began promoting an idea of rapidly industrializing Cuba, and diversifying Cuba's agriculture. In 1961, Guevara proposed a four year plan for rapid industrialization that would create a 15% annual growth rate, and a tenfold increase in the production of fruits. As head of the Ministry of Industries, Guevara announced on the radio program People's University on March 3, 1961 that "accelerated industrialization" would require the centralization of all economic decision making.

In 1961, various Marxist economists from throughout the world were invited to Cuba to assist in economic planning. The central planning board of Cuba: JUCEPLAN, was tasked with creating a four year economic plan. Regino Boti, the head of JUCEPLAN, announced in August 1961, that the country would soon have a 10% rate of economic growth. The plan drafted by JUCEPLAN in 1961, was a four year plan devised to be implemented in 1962 through 1965.

Economic decline

Historian Jorge I. Domínguez claims that throughout 1960 to 1962, there was no discussion within the Cuban government about altering the economic plan for accelerated industrialization. It wasn't until after the sharp decline in sugar production during the 1962 harvest, that ministers began recognizing the plan's failure, and began considering reform. The sugar harvest of 1962 was 4.8 million tons, a drop from 6.8 million tons in 1961.

In March 1962, Guevara admitted in a speech that the economic plan was a failure, specifically stating it was "an absurd plan, disconnected from reality, with absurd goals and imaginary resources."

Scholars Richard Legé Harris has contested that the demise of the economic plan was the result of a lack of machinery which was typically imported from the United States, but was prevented from being imported due to the embargo, as well as a lack of educated technicians. Luis Fernando Ayerbe has claimed that the crisis was caused by a combination of falling sugar profits and expanding social services. As profits fell, and social services increased, Cuba needed greater consumer goods to give to the poor, but could not provide them due to reduced profits.

The failure of the industrialization plan had immediate impacts by 1962. In that year, Cuba introduced a rationing system for food, and froze prices. A new currency was also introduced, which tangentially made all financial savings in the old currency worthless overnight.

Debate and further decline

After the stark economic decline of 1962, Fidel Castro invited Marxist economists around the world to debate two main propositions. One proposition proposed by Che Guevara was that Cuba could bypass any capitalist then "socialist" transition period and immediately become an industrialized "communist" society if "subjective conditions" like public consciousness and vanguard action are perfected. The other proposition held by the Popular Socialist Party was that Cuba required a transitionary period as a mixed economy in which Cuba's sugar economy was maximized for profit before a "communist" society could be established.

Economic decline continued during this debate, and by 1963, sugar production was down by over a third of its 1961 level. The sugar harvest of that year only brought in 3.8 million tons, the lowest harvest in Cuba in over twenty years. General food production was also down per capita by 40% for the next three years.

In 1963, Castro began to emphasize sugar production in economic planning. In the same year, Guevara resigned from his position as head of Ministry of Industries. In 1964, Fidel Castro visited the Soviet Union and agreed to an deal promising Soviet machinery for 24 million tons of sugarcane over the next five years. Cuba's economy was once again refocused on sugar production.

Aftermath

Career of Che Guevara

After the failure of the industrialization plan, Guevara published and article in 1964, titled The Cuban Economy: Its Past, and Its Present Importance, which analyzed Cuba's economic decline. In the article Guevara states that he committed "two principle errors": the diversification of agriculture, and dispersing resources evenly for various agricultural sectors. Specifically on the move away from sugar, Guevara states:

The entire economic history of Cuba had demonstrated that no other agricultural activity would give such returns as those yielded by the cultivation of the sugarcane. At the outset of the Revolution many of us were not aware of this basic economic fact, because a fetishistic idea connected sugar with our dependence on imperialism and with the misery in the rural areas, without analysing the real causes: the relation to the uneven trade balance.

Guevara continued to be critical of the Soviet economic model. In a February 1965 speech, Guevara criticized the Soviet Union for engaging in "exploitative" relationships with third world countries. In his essay published that year, Socialism and the New Man in Cuba, Guevara continued to advocate for an economy based on a moral enthusiasm for self-sacrifice.

While Guevara was making diplomatic visits around the world, East European advisors were invited to Cuba to evaluate the economy, and wrote a report highly critical of Guevara. When Guevara returned to Cuba from world travel in March 1964, he was greeted at the Rancho Boyeros airport by Fidel Castro, Carlos Rafael Rodríguez, Osvaldo Dorticós Torrado, and his wife. Guevara and Castro did not embrace, as was their custom. Later in April, Guevara would depart from Cuba to fight in the Congo.

After Guevara had left Cuba to fight in the Congo, the CIA released a memo titled "The Fall of Che Guevara and the Changing Face of the Cuban Revolution". In the memo, analyst Brian Latell argues that Guevara's exit from Cuba was the result of a schism with Castro. This schism was caused by Guevara aligning with China during the Sino-Soviet split, and Guevara being responsible for Cuba's failed industrialization plan.

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• 1961 in Cuba
• 1962 in Cuba
• 1963 in Cuba
• 1964 in Cuba
• Economy of Cuba
• Sugar industry of Cuba
• 1961 establishments in Cuba
• 1960s in Cuba
• Fidel Castro