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The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It officially started June 1, 2004, and will last until November 30, 2004. Experts on hurricane climatology have predicted that the season will have more numerous and more intense storms than average.
Atlantic hurricane seasons2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
| Category | m/s | knots | mph | km/h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ≥ 70 | ≥ 137 | ≥ 157 | ≥ 252 |
| 4 | 58–70 | 113–136 | 130–156 | 209–251 |
| 3 | 50–58 | 96–112 | 111–129 | 178–208 |
| 2 | 43–49 | 83–95 | 96–110 | 154–177 |
| 1 | 33–42 | 64–82 | 74–95 | 119–153 |
| TS | 18–32 | 34–63 | 39–73 | 63–118 |
| TD | ≤ 17 | ≤ 33 | ≤ 38 | ≤ 62 |
Pre-season forecasts
On May 17, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters predicted a 50% probability of above-normal activity, with 12-15 tropical storms, 6-8 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Noted hurricane expert Dr. William Gray's May 28 prediction was similar, with 14 named storms, 8 reaching hurricane strength, and 3 reaching Category 3 strength.
A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has an average of 9.4 tropical storms, 5.6 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1.9 of those reaching Category 3 strength.
Events
March
Although not part of the traditional Atlantic hurricane season, one event in the South Atlantic was so unusual as to merit inclusion here.
On March 25, a tropical cyclone (unofficially named Catarina) formed in the South Atlantic. Although its status is questioned, Catarina is considered to be the first hurricane to have formed in the South Atlantic since satellite observations began.
It made landfall late on March 27 in the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina. The storm killed at least three, and caused over 350 million USD in damage.
June
No named storms formed in June 2004. On average, June has a roughly 50% chance of having no named storms. This is not an indication of a quiet season, as even active seasons often have no named storms form in June.
July
- July 31 - 5 pm EDT (2100 UTC) - Tropical Depression One forms 175 miles (280 km) south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
August
- August 1 - 2 pm EDT (1800 UTC) - Tropical Depression One is upgraded to Tropical Storm Alex. The storm is centered 80 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina.
- August 3 - 2 am EDT (0600 UTC) - Tropical Storm Alex is upgraded to Hurricane Alex. The storm is centered 75 miles south-southeast of Wilmington, North Carolina.
- August 3 - 11 am EDT (1500 UTC) - Hurricane Alex is upgraded to a category 2 hurricane. The storm is centered 40 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
- August 3 - 11 am EDT (1500 UTC) - Tropical Depression Two forms near the Lesser Antilles, 460 miles (740 km) east of the Windward Islands.
- August 3 - Hurricane Alex skirts the Outer Banks of North Carolina but does not make landfall.
Storms
Hurricane Alex
Alex formed out of a disorganized area of thunderstorms east of the Bahamas, reaching tropical depression status on July 31 175 miles south-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. By August 1 the depression's winds were strong enough that it was classified as a tropical storm. The storm meandered for most of the next day, until it took on a slow motion to the northeast.
Early on August 3 (2am EDT), Alex was officially designated a hurricane. Hurricane Alex continued to strengthen, and that afternoon came within 10 miles (16 km) of the Outer Banks of North Carolina without making landfall. Damage currently appears to be limited to light flooding and wind damage.
As of 8 pm EDT, August 3, Alex was moving northeast at 16 mi/h (26 km/h) 110 miles (177 km) east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina as a 100 mi/h (160 km/h) hurricane. Alex's course is expected to continue away from the Outer Banks. Also as of 8pm, all hurricane and tropical storm warnings in the United States are discontinued.
Alex is the fifth-latest forming first hurricane in fifty years; the latest start to a hurricane season since 1954 was Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
For official forecasts, see the NHC's public advisory on Hurricane Alex.
2004 Hurricane names
The following names are being used for named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes) that form in the North Atlantic in 2004. Currently active storms are marked in bold. Names that have not yet been assigned are marked in gray.
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External links
- National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook - updated every six hours
- NOAA hurricane season outlook
- William Gray's 2004 pre-season forecast