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Post-election pendulum for the 2017 Queensland state election

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2017 Queensland state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor seats (48)
Marginal
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 0.4
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP 0.7
Mundingburra Coralee O'Rourke ALP 1.1
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP 1.2
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP 1.6
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 1.9
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 2.5 v ONP
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 3.1 v ONP
Redlands Kim Richards ALP 3.1
Cairns Michael Healy ALP 3.4
South Brisbane Jackie Trad ALP 3.6 v GRN
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 3.6
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 4.1 v ONP
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 4.6
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 4.9
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP 5.2 v ONP
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP 5.8 v ONP
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP 5.8
Fairly safe
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP 6.2
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 6.2
Logan Linus Power ALP 6.8 v ONP
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP 7.0
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP 7.4
Capalaba Don Brown ALP 7.9
McConnel Grace Grace ALP 7.9
Miller Mark Bailey ALP 8.2
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 8.3
Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP 8.7 v ONP
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 8.7 v ONP
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP 9.5
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP 9.9 v ONP
Stretton Duncan Pegg ALP 9.9
Safe
Toohey Peter Russo ALP 10.0
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 10.1
Cooper Kate Jones ALP 10.6
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 10.7 v ONP
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 10.8
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 10.9 v ONP
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 10.9
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 12.0
Stafford Anthony Lynham ALP 12.1
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 13.5
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 14.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 14.4
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP 20.7 v ONP
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 21.6
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 26.1
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 26.4
Liberal National seats (39)
Marginal
Whitsunday Jason Costigan LNP 0.7
Burdekin Dale Last LNP 0.8
Pumicestone Simone Wilson LNP 0.8
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP 1.7
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 2.4
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 2.9
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 3.3
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 3.4
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 3.4
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 3.5
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP 3.7
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP 4.1 v ONP
Bundaberg David Batt LNP 4.2
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 4.9
Everton Tim Mander LNP 4.9
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 5.0
Nicklin Marty Hunt LNP 5.3
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 5.7
Fairly safe
Callide Colin Boyce LNP 6.1 v ONP
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 6.3
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP 7.2
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 7.2
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP 8.4
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 8.5
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 8.7 v ONP
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP 9.1
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 9.5 v KAP
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 9.8
Safe
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP 10.0
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 10.7
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 10.7 v ONP
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP 11.4
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 13.1
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP 13.1 v ONP
Southern Downs James Lister LNP 13.1 v ONP
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 13.4 v ONP
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP 13.9 v ONP
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP 18.0
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 19.8
Crossbench seats (6)
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN 1.6 v LNP
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP 4.8 v ALP
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP 7.6 v LNP
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND 11.5 v LNP
Hill Shane Knuth KAP 19.7 v LNP
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP 28.5 v ALP

References

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