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Pre-election pendulum for the 2017 Queensland state election

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The following is a Mackerras pendulum prior to the 2017 Queensland state election.

"Very safe" seats require a swing of more than 20 points to change, "safe" seats 10–20 points to change, "fairly safe" seats 6–10 points, and "marginal" seats less than 6 points.

Labor seats
Marginal
Bundaberg Leanne Donaldson ALP 0.5
Mansfield Ian Walker (LNP) ALP 0.8
Mount Ommaney Tarnya Smith (LNP) ALP 1.0
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP 1.1
Burdekin Dale Last (LNP) ALP 1.4
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP 1.4
Mundingburra Coralee O'Rourke ALP 1.8
McConnel Grace Grace ALP 3.1
Cooper Kate Jones ALP 3.3
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP 3.6
Mirani Jim Pearce ALP 3.8
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP 4.1
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP 4.1
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP 5.0
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP 5.3
Stretton Duncan Pegg ALP 5.3
Miller Mark Bailey ALP 5.6
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP 5.7
Logan Linus Power ALP 5.9
Fairly safe
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP 6.1
Murrumba Chris Whiting ALP 6.3
Macalister New seat ALP 6.4
Capalaba Don Brown ALP 6.5
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP 6.6
Cook Billy Gordon ALP 6.8
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP 7.1
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP 7.6
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP 8.3
Toohey Peter Russo ALP 8.3
Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP 9.1
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP 9.2
Stafford Anthony Lynham ALP 9.3
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP 9.6
Lytton Joan Pease ALP 9.9
Safe
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP 10.1
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP 10.2
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP 12.9
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP 13.1
Jordan New seat ALP 13.5
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP 13.5
South Brisbane Jackie Trad ALP 13.8
Rockhampton Bill Byrne ALP 14.0
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP 16.0
Very safe
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP 20.6
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP v IND 25.3
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP 25.8
Bundamba Jo-Ann Miller ALP 25.9
Liberal National seats
Marginal
Whitsunday Jason Costigan LNP 0.6
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP 0.9
Redlands Matt McEachan LNP 1.2
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP 1.6
Lockyer Ian Rickuss LNP v PHON 1.6
Bonney New seat LNP 2.2
Everton Tim Mander LNP 2.5
Gaven Sid Cramp LNP 2.8
Maiwar Scott Emerson LNP 3.0
Aspley Tracy Davis LNP 3.2
Hinchinbrook Andrew Cripps LNP 3.4
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP 3.3
Caloundra Mark McArdle LNP 4.7
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP 5.3
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP 5.5
Currumbin Jann Stuckey LNP 5.7
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP 5.7
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP 5.8
Fairly safe
Hervey Bay Ted Sorensen LNP 6.5
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP 6.6
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP 6.6
Noosa Glen Elmes LNP 6.8
Ninderry New seat LNP 6.9
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP 7.6
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP 7.8
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP 8.1
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP 8.3
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP 9.2
Callide Jeff Seeney LNP 9.8
Safe
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP 10.2
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP 10.3
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP 10.3
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP 10.3
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP 10.4
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP 13.3
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP 14.5
Broadwater Verity Barton LNP 16.3
Condamine Pat Weir LNP 17.1
Southern Downs Lawrence Springborg LNP 19.2
Very safe
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP 20.4
Crossbench seats
Pumicestone Rick Williams IND (ALP v LNP) 0.1
Hill Shane Knuth KAP 4.9
Cairns Rob Pyne IND (ALP v LNP) 7.5
Buderim Steve Dickson PHON (LNP v ALP) 11.8
Traeger Rob Katter KAP v LNP 16.1

See also

References

  1. Green, Antony. "Pendulum - Queensland Votes 2017". ABC Elections. Retrieved 6 November 2017.
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